The urban voters in Gujarat have always helped the BJP come to power. Question is will the same equation work this time? Can the BJP be dislodged from urban constituencies of Ahmedabad and Vadodara? A look at how Gujarat voted in the 2012 assembly elections throws some light on what to expect.
In the 2012 assembly elections, the BJP won 16 out of 20 seats in Ahmedabad district. Out of these, a mammoth 14 seats were won with a less than 10% margin. Of course, one must remember, that the party fielded many heavyweights in the area, including the then chief minister Narendra Modi and Anandiben Patel.
Explore TOI's interactive for insights into how Gujarat votes
Similarly, in Vadodara district the BJP won 6 out of 7 seats. Out of these, 5 seats were won with a margin higher than 25%. With such a huge victory margin, it will take something massive to defeat the BJP in its strongholds of Raopura, Manjalpur, Sayajigunj, Vadodara City and Akota. The only two seats that might be closely contested are Vaghodia and Savli—both of which have a fairly high Parmar population.
So which seats will be closely contested? An analysis of the 2012 assembly results show that the Congress and the BJP were evenly matched in central Gujarat outside the two Ahmedabad and Vadodara districts—BJP: 15 seats, INC: 18 seats, Others: 1 seat. It's here that the Patidar agitation and signs of anti-incumbency could help the Congress pick up more seats.
Rishabh Srivastava is founder of data research firm, Loki Technologies
In the 2012 assembly elections, the BJP won 16 out of 20 seats in Ahmedabad district. Out of these, a mammoth 14 seats were won with a less than 10% margin. Of course, one must remember, that the party fielded many heavyweights in the area, including the then chief minister Narendra Modi and Anandiben Patel.
Explore TOI's interactive for insights into how Gujarat votes
Similarly, in Vadodara district the BJP won 6 out of 7 seats. Out of these, 5 seats were won with a margin higher than 25%. With such a huge victory margin, it will take something massive to defeat the BJP in its strongholds of Raopura, Manjalpur, Sayajigunj, Vadodara City and Akota. The only two seats that might be closely contested are Vaghodia and Savli—both of which have a fairly high Parmar population.
So which seats will be closely contested? An analysis of the 2012 assembly results show that the Congress and the BJP were evenly matched in central Gujarat outside the two Ahmedabad and Vadodara districts—BJP: 15 seats, INC: 18 seats, Others: 1 seat. It's here that the Patidar agitation and signs of anti-incumbency could help the Congress pick up more seats.
Rishabh Srivastava is founder of data research firm, Loki Technologies
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