MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night’s main-card bouts. Today, we look at the first four fights on the main card.

UFC Fight Night 123 takes place Saturday at Save Mart Center in Fresno, Calif., and it airs on FS1 following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.

ALSO SEE:

• UFC Fight Night 123 main-event breakdown: Can Brian Ortega get a breakout win against Cub Swanson?
• UFC Fight Night 123 co-main event breakdown: Will Jason Knight vs. Gabriel Benitez turn into fireworks?
• UFC Fight Night 123 main-card breakdown: Moraes-Sterling, Holtzman-Horcher and more

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Disclaimer: The following section is designed for entertainment purposes only. The unit sizes serve as a rough representation of the percentage of bankroll risked, as well as my confidence in said plays. If you intend on gambling, I suggest that you do so responsibly and legally, as it is at your own risk. All lines are drawn from 5Dimes.eu on the day this article was published (Dec. 8, 2017).

Dan’s plays

Playable parlay pieces (my most confident favorites):

• Eryk Anders -310
• Iuri Alcantara-210
• Trevin Giles -270

Summary: My recommended parlay pieces are typically my most confident picks that could serve as potential legs for whatever play you’re trying to put together.

First up is Eryk Anders (9-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC), who is facing Markus Perez (9-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC). Essentially, we have a battle between a process-driven fighter and a flamboyant opportunist.

For reasons that I elaborate on in my in-depth breakdown, I believe that Anders should be the better fighter with a clear path to victory here.

Next, I elected to with Iuri Alcantara (35-8 MMA, 9-5 UFC), who comes in at a reasonable -210 should you still have faith in the veteran. Alcantara is facing Alejandro Perez (18-6-1 MMA, 4-1-1 UFC), a scrappy Mexican fighter who is coming off of two close and controversial fights.

Although Perez’s style of engagement can be frustrating for his opposition (and sometimes even his coaches), Alcantara is an experienced fighter who has shown he can work through much worse weather than what Perez will likely offer. Furthermore, Alcantara’s patented counter left-hand should serve him well considering the success we saw Andre Soukhamthath have against Perez in their last outing.

Lastly, I feel that Trevin Giles (10-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) could be worth a gander for your potential plays. Giles – an undefeated fighter with promise – reminds me of a young Rashad Evans given his skill-set. Giles appears to have some savvy in his striking, whether it be by the way that he moves his feet or throws his hands.

Carrying a natural feel for takedowns, Giles seems more than capable of taking a fight to the floor when he chooses to. And it is in grappling exchanges where Giles’ intelligence and potential shine through. From his positional choices, rides and overall awareness, there a lot there to tell me that he won’t be a fish out of the water if he finds himself swimming with Antonio Braga Neto (9-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC), a fighter who is coming off of a three-year layoff from competition).

Straight plays:

• Aljamain Sterling +115 (0.5 unit)
• Merab Dvalishvili -160 (1 unit)

Summary: For straight plays, I typically look for fighters who I not only feel confident about (whether it be by their sample size or the matchup at hand), but also have a low asking price. And though it is admittedly hard to feel too confident on either side of Aljamain Sterling (14-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC) vs. Marlon Moraes (19-5-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC), there could be value in playing the underdog in this spot.

As stated in my main-card breakdown, Moraes is making a quick four-week turnaround into what could be one of the tougher stylistic matchups for him in the division. And with Sterling being one of my few official underdog picks, I am willing to put my money (at least a small portion of it) where my mouth is to find out.

I also elected to take a shot on Merab Dvalishvili (7-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC), who has an asking price of -160 as of this writing. Although Dvalishvili is a debuting fighter (which can always be a potential flag for plays), there is a lot to like about the Georgian’s game.

Hailing from a region that is rich in Sambo, Dvalishvili carries some skills that will likely serve him well against Frankie Saenz (10-5 MMA, 3-3 UFC). Saenz, a former collegiate wrestler who found success in MMA, tends to do some of his best work (as well as takes needed/brief breaks) from the clinch. The problem, however, is that this is also where Dvalishvili – an accoladed sambo player and judo black belt – makes his money.

Coupled with the fact that Saenz is coming off a long layoff, and I could see a successful debut for the Georgian fighter who is over a decade younger than his counterpart.

Props worth looking at:

• Iuri Alcantara/Alejandro Perez over 2.5: -120 (1 unit)
• Eryk Anders “inside the distance”: -125 (1.5 units)

Summary: My first prop is a total, as I elected to go with the over 2.5 in the Alcantara-Perez matchup. With the pecking prodding nature of Perez’s game, he tends to find himself in close contests.

For that reason, it can be tricky in betting for or against Perez, as a play on the over could serve as a hedge for taking a side on the fight (e.g. Alcantara as my parlay piece).

My second prop is also chalk, as I have Anders inside the distance. Insanely heavy-hands aside, I believe that Anders – as stated in my breakdown – has a tangible path to put his opponent away both on the ground and in transition.

Fights to avoid (live dogs, high intangibles, etc.):

• Albert Morales vs. Benito Lopez
• Luke Sanders vs. Andre Soukhamthath
• Scott Holtzman vs. Darrell Horcher
• Alexis Davis vs. Liz Carmouche