View: Eventually, voters will have the last laugh
, ET CONTRIBUTORS|
Dec 08, 2017, 11.46 PM IST
With more than 2.12 crore voters eligible to cast votes on Saturday across 89 seats in Saurashtra and South Gujarat, the key will be held by 1.14 crore voters below 40. This is the demographic group that solidly backed BJP in recent elections, especially in 2014, but has over the past two and a half years been restive and even angry for a variety of reasons. This is also the age group which has little or no memory of Congress governments and their benchmark will be of recent origin, possibly pre and post 2014. This is also the age group that is likely to be most affected by economic challenges and worries about professional future, issues in sharp focus during the electoral discourse.
Going by past record — BJP won 63 seats of these 89 in 2012 and had leadings in 84 assembly segments during the 2014 parliamentary polls — the terrain should have been smooth for BJP. However, the situation has turned on its head following the Patidar agitation since August 2015 and has consequently queered BJP's pitch in Saurashtra. Additionally, the predominantly urban bastions of South Gujarat, especially Surat, are a shade uncertain because of the impact of demonetisation and rollout of GST on the trading community, many of who are Patels from Saurashtra. Congress will fancy its chances in securing significant leads in Saurashtra while making inroads in urban pockets of South Gujarat. On the other side, BJP has worked micro-level strategies for almost every constituency besides drawing on the overarching 'civilisational pitch' made by the PM since he embarked on extensive campaigning from November 27.
In 2012, BJP's strike rate in seats in this phase was higher and principally due to Modi warding off the challenge from Keshubhai Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party, which won just two seats and polled barely 3.6% of votes but split the anti-BJP vote. Despite the presence of smaller parties in the fray this time, it is expected that the contest will be more bipolar than in 2012.
A feature of previous elections is Congress traditionally performing well in rural constituencies. As per constituency classification by Datanet India, there are 38 purely rural constituencies, 34 purely urban and 110 'rurban' or a mix of rural and urban seats. Of the rural seats, the Congress won 18 in 2012 as against BJP's 17. Even in the rurban seats, the Congress share was 39 as compared to BJP's 68. Of the 61 seats that Congress won in 2012, only four were purely urban seats as against 30 secured by BJP.
The extent of Congress presence in rural areas can be assessed by noting that in 2014 when out of its total assembly leadings in 17 seats, the party was ahead in only two urban segments, leaving the rest to rural and rurban seats. The verdict this time thus may well hinge on the advances Congress makes in rural areas and the extent to which BJP retains its urban bastions. Despite being among the most urbanised states, about 57% of Gujarat's population live in villages and their main occupation is agriculture. With farmers complaining bitterly about non-remunerative prices, at times lower than the MSP, there will be an urgency in Congress to harness this sentiment. On the other side, BJP will look at enlisting the newly urbanised, either those who have recently migrated or who live in rural tracts now incorporated in urban sprawls.
Because of Gujarat's bipolarity, keen contests or what Datanet India classifies as 'wrestling zones' are significant. Almost one out of every six seats in 2012 were won by margins of less than 5,000 votes. Of these 35 constituencies, 15 are going to polls in the first phase and 14 are in Saurashtra. Congress won nine of these in 2012.
Though Muslims have been absent in electoral debates except by proxy towards the end, it is worthwhile to note that of the 21 seats where Muslims have a significant presence, 14 vote on Saturday. In 2012, BJP won 13 seats where Muslims were present in significant numbers while in 2014 its leadings went up to 18. Past postpoll surveys conducted by the Centre for Studies in Developing Societies have suggested that BJP received the votes of almost 20% of the Muslim population, mainly from the middle classes. The moot point now is whether this support will be reflected in the verdict this time too.
Opinion polls and even exit polls have often gone completely wrong but it will not be prudent to ignore tracking polls conducted by agencies like TimesNow-VMR and CSDS-ABP. A common feature in these is a drop in BJP support over the past three months. If true, this opens the elections completely. Eventually voters will have the last laugh but till then pollsters, pundits and leaders alike will clutch onto past data and demographic records to decipher which way the hawa is blowing.
Going by past record — BJP won 63 seats of these 89 in 2012 and had leadings in 84 assembly segments during the 2014 parliamentary polls — the terrain should have been smooth for BJP. However, the situation has turned on its head following the Patidar agitation since August 2015 and has consequently queered BJP's pitch in Saurashtra. Additionally, the predominantly urban bastions of South Gujarat, especially Surat, are a shade uncertain because of the impact of demonetisation and rollout of GST on the trading community, many of who are Patels from Saurashtra. Congress will fancy its chances in securing significant leads in Saurashtra while making inroads in urban pockets of South Gujarat. On the other side, BJP has worked micro-level strategies for almost every constituency besides drawing on the overarching 'civilisational pitch' made by the PM since he embarked on extensive campaigning from November 27.
In 2012, BJP's strike rate in seats in this phase was higher and principally due to Modi warding off the challenge from Keshubhai Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party, which won just two seats and polled barely 3.6% of votes but split the anti-BJP vote. Despite the presence of smaller parties in the fray this time, it is expected that the contest will be more bipolar than in 2012.
A feature of previous elections is Congress traditionally performing well in rural constituencies. As per constituency classification by Datanet India, there are 38 purely rural constituencies, 34 purely urban and 110 'rurban' or a mix of rural and urban seats. Of the rural seats, the Congress won 18 in 2012 as against BJP's 17. Even in the rurban seats, the Congress share was 39 as compared to BJP's 68. Of the 61 seats that Congress won in 2012, only four were purely urban seats as against 30 secured by BJP.
The extent of Congress presence in rural areas can be assessed by noting that in 2014 when out of its total assembly leadings in 17 seats, the party was ahead in only two urban segments, leaving the rest to rural and rurban seats. The verdict this time thus may well hinge on the advances Congress makes in rural areas and the extent to which BJP retains its urban bastions. Despite being among the most urbanised states, about 57% of Gujarat's population live in villages and their main occupation is agriculture. With farmers complaining bitterly about non-remunerative prices, at times lower than the MSP, there will be an urgency in Congress to harness this sentiment. On the other side, BJP will look at enlisting the newly urbanised, either those who have recently migrated or who live in rural tracts now incorporated in urban sprawls.
Because of Gujarat's bipolarity, keen contests or what Datanet India classifies as 'wrestling zones' are significant. Almost one out of every six seats in 2012 were won by margins of less than 5,000 votes. Of these 35 constituencies, 15 are going to polls in the first phase and 14 are in Saurashtra. Congress won nine of these in 2012.
Though Muslims have been absent in electoral debates except by proxy towards the end, it is worthwhile to note that of the 21 seats where Muslims have a significant presence, 14 vote on Saturday. In 2012, BJP won 13 seats where Muslims were present in significant numbers while in 2014 its leadings went up to 18. Past postpoll surveys conducted by the Centre for Studies in Developing Societies have suggested that BJP received the votes of almost 20% of the Muslim population, mainly from the middle classes. The moot point now is whether this support will be reflected in the verdict this time too.
Opinion polls and even exit polls have often gone completely wrong but it will not be prudent to ignore tracking polls conducted by agencies like TimesNow-VMR and CSDS-ABP. A common feature in these is a drop in BJP support over the past three months. If true, this opens the elections completely. Eventually voters will have the last laugh but till then pollsters, pundits and leaders alike will clutch onto past data and demographic records to decipher which way the hawa is blowing.
