At the IMD: ‘No award for detecting cyclone first, but if forecast goes wrong…’

Photo for representation purpose

“We are not the police force,” says Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, head of services at India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Lodhi Road. “Nobody here gets an award for being the first to detect a cyclone, but if our forecast goes wrong…” he trails off, interrupted by a call he cannot receive due to poor reception on his phone.

Though far from Cyclone Ockhi, Mohapatra has had sleepless nights tracking the rare occurrence in the Arabian Sea which has traversed roughly 2,350 km across Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep, claiming 39 lives and leaving scores of fishermen missing at sea.

The cyclone is now headed to Surat in Gujarat, which goes to polls this weekend. At a group meeting ahead of the evening bulletin Tuesday, a colleague asks Mohapatra, “Shall we declare it? It’s definitely weakening. Aaj raat ko araam se soh sakte hein (we can sleep peacefully tonight).”

Yet, Ockhi was still hovering in the “open sea”, one of the scientists pointed out. Will it really die down so quickly, enough to confidently put it in the evening bulletin? Mohapatra took a minute to think, and began to dictate: “However, there is also a probability of weakening. Nahi dissipation kar do,” he corrected himself, “…of the system over the sea before the land fall due to unfavourable environmental conditions.”

It has been a shift system at IMD for a week, ever since a low pressure that developed on November 28 transformed into a well-marked depression off the coast of Sri Lanka before noon the next day. Mohapatra has, however, been on-call the whole time. He taps at the “genesis point” on his computer screen, the outline of Southern India against a white background. Little dots with two small semi-circles coming out of them mark Ockhi’s path, only to stop roughly 290 km off Surat coast. “That last part is the forecast track,” he explained, highlighting a red line that takes the cyclone into the Prime Minister’s state.

Mohapatra relayed this information on the landline, at least thrice between 6.20 pm-6.30 pm, addressing each caller with a “Sir”. Everyone is monitoring the situation closely, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who tweeted after learning that Ockhi might hit Gujarat: “Our karyakartas (workers) should devote themselves to providing all possible assistance and stand shoulder to shoulder with fellow citizens.”

Meanwhile, joint secretary (Home) Sanjeev Kumar Jindal said the cyclone has weakened and is expected to have no major impact in Gujarat, where the first phase of the two-phase Assembly election is due. Mohapatra, too, appeared concerned. “We are monitoring closely because there is a lot of activity (in Gujarat) with the election process. That is why we have been taking utmost care and sending out bulletins on time,” he says.

Then there was IMD’s “international responsibility” too. “We serve as the Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre for the Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern regions,” Mohapatra says, stretching a cloud-shaped graphic over the forecast path on his computer screen. The Arabian Sea is transformed into coordinates, with messages as if in code, on the status of the cyclone. “This is a civil aviation guideline which we send out to all international airports so flights going through this path are aware there is a cyclone in the region.”

“Please, excuse me for a minute…” he says, picking up his landline, this time to make sure someone is around for the night shift. “Only one of you need to come tonight. The cyclone has weakened.”