Bali volcano: How scientists can predict when Mount Agung will ERUPT
BALI’S Mount Agung volcano has been spewing ash more than 3,000 metres into the sky for weeks as scientists try to pin down exactly when the next eruption will be.
A column of white smoke and ash hangs above Mount Agung where tremors continue, meteorological officials said, although with decreasing frequency.
Lava sparks flash at night and reflecting off the ash clouds, given the smoke a vibrant red glow.
An estimated 90,000 to 100,000 people live in a danger area near the volcano in the eastern part of Bali, but tens of thousands have resisted government orders to evacuate.
And scientists are now trying to establish exactly when the volcano could blow after authorities warned a second eruption was ”imminent”.
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Ash remains visible to the southeast of Mount Agung, the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre said, with reports indicating emissions of steam and ash.
"Volcanological sources indicate a larger eruption is still possible," it said on its website.
Scientists know that each volcano has its own unique "personality” - so the indicators of when it will erupt vary between each individual volcano.
One may see a sudden increase in the frequency and strength of earthquakes below it while a different volcano might instead display an increase in elevation as magma swells beneath its surface.
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The best way scientists can determine whether a volcano is about to erupt is to study its past behaviour.
Mount Agung last erupted in 1963, killing around 1,100 people.
But at the time, the mountain was not being closely monitored with seismometers and satellite obersvations were not common place.
Therefore experts cannot be certain whether Mount Agung’s current behaviours are indicating whether the eruption will happen in two days, two weeks, two months of even two years.
Mount Agung latest pictures: Volcano eruption begins
Thu, November 30, 2017Indonesian authorities raised the state of alert to its highest level for the volcano, Mount Agung, after thick ash started shooting thousands of meters into the air with increasing intensity
A plume of smoke above Mount Agung volcano is illuminated at sunset as seen from Amed, Karangasem Regency, Bali
However Mt Agung has been active since September 2017.
The intensity of the volcano’s activity increased significantly throughout November until it started spewing smoke and ash on November 21th.
Which could suggest the eruption is preceded by two months of warning signs.
Bali, famous for its surf, beaches and temples, attracted nearly five million visitors last year but business has slumped in areas around the volcano since September when Agung's volcanic tremors began to increase.
Agung is one of over 120 active volcanoes extending the length of Indonesia.
