Gujarat Elections: 98 rural seats pose challenge for BJP in breaking Madhavsinh Solanki's 1985 record
, ET Bureau|
Updated: Dec 02, 2017, 12.28 AM IST
GANDHINAGAR: For winning 150 seats and set a record in Gujarat by breaking the 1985 record of Madhavsinh Solanki led Congress, the BJP would need a wave that would help it retain urban citadels while winning more seats from rural areas.
Out of 182 assembly seats, 98 seats fall in rural areas, while 84 urban seats have traditionally been BJP strongholds. However, over the last three elections, BJP’s vote share in rural seats have been sliding after its 2002 peak, when the party bagged 75 out of then rural 115 seats.
In 2007, the BJP managed to win 64 out of 115 rural seats but the tally slipped to 50 out of 98 in 2012, when the election was conducted after seat delimitation. In comparison, Congress’s rural vote share rose from 32% in 2002 to 44% in 2012.
For BJP, 2017 has become more than a cakewalk after the Patidar agitation and disaffection among traders over im pacts of demonetisation and GST. With Patidar leader Hardik Patel and Thakor leader Alpesh Thakor openly siding with Congress, the election has also waded into the minefields of caste equations, forcing BJP to repeat its candidates in several seats and fielding Congress turncoats in some others. Caste confabulations have also caused headache for the Congress.
While it has fielded several associates of Hardik and Alpesh much to the chagrin of the party workers in many seats, every seat won would be an achievement for the party. For BJP, however, the task is not that simple. While the party has to bank on retaining the urban grip, it has no option but to better its tally significantly in the rural areas to achieve its target.
Narendra Modi’s departure from the state and growing disaffection of farmers over issues of MSP, electricity, price rise, agricultural loans waiver and weakening of the cooperative sectors are matters of concern and highlighted by the Congress, which has concentrated its campaign on local issues.
BJP insiders are skeptical about the target and maintain that while it sounds good on paper, “the party should be more than happy managing a clear majority with a decent margin.”
BJP for long has been trying to woo rural voters with intensive campaign on Narmada and irrigation. The prime minister himself led the campaign by inaugurating the completed Narmada dam on his birthday. However it remains to be seen how much these efforts would actually help it in achieving its target of 150 seats.
Out of 182 assembly seats, 98 seats fall in rural areas, while 84 urban seats have traditionally been BJP strongholds. However, over the last three elections, BJP’s vote share in rural seats have been sliding after its 2002 peak, when the party bagged 75 out of then rural 115 seats.
In 2007, the BJP managed to win 64 out of 115 rural seats but the tally slipped to 50 out of 98 in 2012, when the election was conducted after seat delimitation. In comparison, Congress’s rural vote share rose from 32% in 2002 to 44% in 2012.
For BJP, 2017 has become more than a cakewalk after the Patidar agitation and disaffection among traders over im pacts of demonetisation and GST. With Patidar leader Hardik Patel and Thakor leader Alpesh Thakor openly siding with Congress, the election has also waded into the minefields of caste equations, forcing BJP to repeat its candidates in several seats and fielding Congress turncoats in some others. Caste confabulations have also caused headache for the Congress.
While it has fielded several associates of Hardik and Alpesh much to the chagrin of the party workers in many seats, every seat won would be an achievement for the party. For BJP, however, the task is not that simple. While the party has to bank on retaining the urban grip, it has no option but to better its tally significantly in the rural areas to achieve its target.
Narendra Modi’s departure from the state and growing disaffection of farmers over issues of MSP, electricity, price rise, agricultural loans waiver and weakening of the cooperative sectors are matters of concern and highlighted by the Congress, which has concentrated its campaign on local issues.
BJP insiders are skeptical about the target and maintain that while it sounds good on paper, “the party should be more than happy managing a clear majority with a decent margin.”
BJP for long has been trying to woo rural voters with intensive campaign on Narmada and irrigation. The prime minister himself led the campaign by inaugurating the completed Narmada dam on his birthday. However it remains to be seen how much these efforts would actually help it in achieving its target of 150 seats.
