View: Why Modi won't be making headlines any more with his disruptive reforms
ET Online|
Updated: Dec 01, 2017, 11.01 PM IST
NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is clearly not taking any chances in the Gujarat elections. This is evident from his aggressive campaign in his home state. The Modi government has been accused of pressurising the Election Commission to delay elections in the state. Modi's sharp tone in his speeches is an indicator of how seriously he is taking the elections.
Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi's new avatar is proving to be more effective. Now he speaks in a language that connects with the masses. His temple visits perturbed the BJP which has hurried to criticise him for his superficial pitch to Hindu voters. What adds to Modi's worries is the three youth leaders—Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakur and Jignesh Mevani—who are mobilsing different caste groups against the BJP. The BJP having to cut the GST rates to placate traders shows it knows it would face opposition from its core voters in the state.
In such a scenario, Modi is not expected to continue with his streak of disruptive reforms. Another reform like demonetisation or GST will be too risky for the BJP as the 2019 Lok Sabha elections will start looming over the party soon.
While Modi is likely to shun reforms, expect him to take populist steps and do a lot of social spending—the measures that are seen to win votes.
Barclays India had said in August that the Modi government was unlikely to undertake any major reform in the remainder of its term. It said the government would rather focus on publicising its achievements.
"Rather than look to conquer new ground in the run-up to the 2019 hustings, we expect Prime Minister Narendra Modi to focus on cementing the success of his reforms and infrastructure projects already started. More focus will be on administrative initiatives and not new legislative reforms on the macroeconomic front," Barclays India chief economist Siddhartha Sanyal had said in a note.
"Notwithstanding his aggressive reforms since 2014, we believe Modi will be selective in picking his battles and deploying his political capital ahead of the 2019 polls. A likely absence of near-term benefits will likely remain a constraining factor against launching new reforms in the run- up to the polls. Closer to the polls, Modi might consider deploying his political capital more to boost BJP's 'nationalist' credentials rather than its 'reformist' image," Sanyal argued.
With the impact of demonetisation still lingering on and the GST woes still not over, Modi is expected to spend his energy on consolidating his position rather than launching new disruptive reforms.
Caste mobilisation in the Gujarat elections by opponents and the new-found aggression of Rahul Gandhi have moved the BJP into a hyperactive mode. Now that the opposition parties are likely to sharpen their attacks on Modi, he will have little time for new radical reforms.
Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi's new avatar is proving to be more effective. Now he speaks in a language that connects with the masses. His temple visits perturbed the BJP which has hurried to criticise him for his superficial pitch to Hindu voters. What adds to Modi's worries is the three youth leaders—Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakur and Jignesh Mevani—who are mobilsing different caste groups against the BJP. The BJP having to cut the GST rates to placate traders shows it knows it would face opposition from its core voters in the state.
In such a scenario, Modi is not expected to continue with his streak of disruptive reforms. Another reform like demonetisation or GST will be too risky for the BJP as the 2019 Lok Sabha elections will start looming over the party soon.
While Modi is likely to shun reforms, expect him to take populist steps and do a lot of social spending—the measures that are seen to win votes.
Barclays India had said in August that the Modi government was unlikely to undertake any major reform in the remainder of its term. It said the government would rather focus on publicising its achievements.
"Rather than look to conquer new ground in the run-up to the 2019 hustings, we expect Prime Minister Narendra Modi to focus on cementing the success of his reforms and infrastructure projects already started. More focus will be on administrative initiatives and not new legislative reforms on the macroeconomic front," Barclays India chief economist Siddhartha Sanyal had said in a note.
"Notwithstanding his aggressive reforms since 2014, we believe Modi will be selective in picking his battles and deploying his political capital ahead of the 2019 polls. A likely absence of near-term benefits will likely remain a constraining factor against launching new reforms in the run- up to the polls. Closer to the polls, Modi might consider deploying his political capital more to boost BJP's 'nationalist' credentials rather than its 'reformist' image," Sanyal argued.
With the impact of demonetisation still lingering on and the GST woes still not over, Modi is expected to spend his energy on consolidating his position rather than launching new disruptive reforms.
Caste mobilisation in the Gujarat elections by opponents and the new-found aggression of Rahul Gandhi have moved the BJP into a hyperactive mode. Now that the opposition parties are likely to sharpen their attacks on Modi, he will have little time for new radical reforms.
