Internal change in Pakistan is the only way the India-Pakistan relationship will improve. How that will be wrought remains open but a lot will depend on another, ongoing, internal transformation — in Saudi Arabia.
"You can have the right policy, put in political capital (as Indian PMs have done), but not everything is in your hands, like the internal situation in Pakistan. This will persist for a while," T C A Raghavan, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan and one of the panelists at the release of the Times book "India-Pakistan: Destined to Fight?", said at the Times Litfest here on Saturday. "History is a guide, there is always a thaw after a freeze," he added.
Carnegie India director and panelist C Raja Mohan, in response to a question from TOI on whether the Saudi crown prince's promise to reimpose the Islam prevalent in Saudi Arabia pre-1979 would help cause internal change in Pakistan, said it certainly would, as did Raghavan. "The events of 1979 transformed the subcontinent. If the Saudis are willing to take a new course, we should wish them well," Raja Mohan said. "I believe so," said Raghavan, adding, "A lot of Pakistan's drift towards extremism was in trying to do things with Saudi patrons. It's good not only for Pakistan but for the entire region."
The Islamic revolution in Iran and the seizure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by radicals in 1979, pushing the Saudis towards a more radical Islam, had transformed the Arab world.
Raja Mohan then described what he saw as a "huge paradox" in the nature of the relationship between the two countries. The good news, he said, was that India was never as much bigger than Pakistan than it was now, in terms of economics, but the bad news was that its capability to persuade Pakistan had declined. "We've seen India try every trick in the book of statecraft. Many times we came so close but peace was elusive," said Raja Mohan. "Civilian leaders (in Pakistan) have no power to do harm or good, which brings us back to the military (Pakistan's). The only hope is internal change," he added.
Raghavan, too, outlined a paradox. "Often, we have made the most progress (with Pakistan) with a military dictator in power," he said and cited the Indus Treaty with Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq visiting India five times and the efforts made with Gen Pervez Musharraf.
Asked whether India and Pakistan were destined to fight, Raghavan said, "Possibly, or possibly not. But it is important we don't fall into an Indo-Pak parochialism all the time."
"You can have the right policy, put in political capital (as Indian PMs have done), but not everything is in your hands, like the internal situation in Pakistan. This will persist for a while," T C A Raghavan, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan and one of the panelists at the release of the Times book "India-Pakistan: Destined to Fight?", said at the Times Litfest here on Saturday. "History is a guide, there is always a thaw after a freeze," he added.
Carnegie India director and panelist C Raja Mohan, in response to a question from TOI on whether the Saudi crown prince's promise to reimpose the Islam prevalent in Saudi Arabia pre-1979 would help cause internal change in Pakistan, said it certainly would, as did Raghavan. "The events of 1979 transformed the subcontinent. If the Saudis are willing to take a new course, we should wish them well," Raja Mohan said. "I believe so," said Raghavan, adding, "A lot of Pakistan's drift towards extremism was in trying to do things with Saudi patrons. It's good not only for Pakistan but for the entire region."
The Islamic revolution in Iran and the seizure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by radicals in 1979, pushing the Saudis towards a more radical Islam, had transformed the Arab world.
Raja Mohan then described what he saw as a "huge paradox" in the nature of the relationship between the two countries. The good news, he said, was that India was never as much bigger than Pakistan than it was now, in terms of economics, but the bad news was that its capability to persuade Pakistan had declined. "We've seen India try every trick in the book of statecraft. Many times we came so close but peace was elusive," said Raja Mohan. "Civilian leaders (in Pakistan) have no power to do harm or good, which brings us back to the military (Pakistan's). The only hope is internal change," he added.
Raghavan, too, outlined a paradox. "Often, we have made the most progress (with Pakistan) with a military dictator in power," he said and cited the Indus Treaty with Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq visiting India five times and the efforts made with Gen Pervez Musharraf.
Asked whether India and Pakistan were destined to fight, Raghavan said, "Possibly, or possibly not. But it is important we don't fall into an Indo-Pak parochialism all the time."
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