President Xi Jinping’s 19th CPC speech surprisingly ignored to mention the single most important policy term in Chinese foreign policy — the “core national interests” — which refers to very specific issues that China considers non-negotiable when conducting relations with other nations.
The “interests” are contested as they impinge on other sovereign states’ interests. The absence of the term may also indicate a position past terminology, which is “well understood” by the international community.
Even though the term “core interests” was not employed to explain China’s position, the speech referred to China’s major concerns with all the more assertion and resolve. Xi viewed Chinese national power as growing and gaining influence in the world. Such a perception of increased Chinese strength also flows into its understanding of the sovereignty and territorial disputes, obstacles in furthering Chinese power and national rejuvenation in the “New Era”.
Xi referred to separation from Taiwan as a “historical tragedy” to be “met with resolute opposition”. He goes further, saying, China has the confidence, resolve and “ability to defeat… attempts for Taiwan independence”. And that “China will never allow anyone, any organisation, or any political party, at any time or in any form, to separate any part of Chinese territory from China!”. The statement is a clear indication of China’s red line and its tenacity towards reunification. Xi warned Taiwan that recognition of the 1992 Consensus — both sides belong to one China — is a prerequisite for any dialogue to start.
In case of Hong Kong, Xi upheld “One country, two systems principle”, and at the same time demanded maintenance of the central authority in Hong Kong, while also guaranteeing Hong Kong’s autonomy.
In Xi’s China Dream of national rejuvenation, the year 2049 is goal marked as China entering the phase of fully developed socialist society, coinciding with the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic. Enshrined in the Basic Law of Hong Kong, the city is to be formally merged with China in 2047, in effect scrapping the autonomy provided under the Basic Law. This would mean the implementation of the Chinese economic and political model in Hong Kong.
Even though, Xi maintained that Hong Kong will continue to enjoy certain autonomy, it is speculated Xi or CCP would like to reunify Hong Kong with mainland without any conditions.
Though the Government did not clarify what degree of autonomy will be enjoyed by Hong Kong, past events suggest it is unlikely that the judicial and political structure will remain the same.
With the increase in awareness among the younger generation towards political freedom, and democracy, protests against Chinese Government for its restrictive activities in Hong Kong also increased. The pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, following the 20th anniversary of the return of Hong Kong to Beijing, drew strong reactions from President Xi during his visit to the city. Referring to the return of the city, he said, “It is…important for us to firmly uphold China’s sovereignty, security and development interests.” Drawing the red line, Xi made it clear that any attempt to endanger China’s sovereignty and security, activities against the mainland, challenge to the authority of the Government under the Basic Law is absolutely impermissible. If in the past Chinese policies towards these regions were seen as compromising, the paramount leader, Xi, defined his last five years through assertion of Chinese non-negotiable interests. In April 2017, then Chief Executive of Hong Kong Leung Chun-ying, while commenting on the debate over autonomy, said Hong Kong enjoys autonomy as authorised by Beijing, not full autonomy.
Chinese views on sovereignty are shaped by Chinese identity and history. Since, separation of Taiwan and occupation of Hong Kong and Macau under foreign powers are considered tragedy, continued maintenance of sovereignty over concerned regions will be the highlight of PLA’s activities. It is to be noted that the references made to PLA urged it to prepare to win the national security challenges. Xi said “(we must) build a powerful and modernised army, navy, air force, rocket force, and strategic support force” to confront the changes in national security environs. He also said that “a military is built to fight” and should “focus on how to win when it is called on”. The speech suggested China’s willingness to employ military measures in order to solve disputes, internal or external, and PLA’s role in putting the issues of sovereignty and territorial disputes to rest.
Once the core issues are dealt with, China will automatically assume the status of a regional power. Though Xi said China is not hegemonic, he celebrated the modernisations achieved by the PLA and the plans of a fully modernised and capable military. Xi also mentioned progress made in the South China Sea, the construction of the artificial islands, exhibiting Chinese power, and reaffirming Chinese claims on the South China Sea. From public point of view the construction on Spratly Islands is an achievement by the CCP, ensuring Chinese position of strength in regional affairs.
Since, China adheres to a single party system, the leaders might change but the party has to outlive personalities. To ensure eternal survival of the party, overcoming national security concerns will be paramount. The East Asia saw increase in China’s military assertiveness, threats of use of force, coercive diplomacy, economic debt trap, and territorial claims. Given the case of Taiwan and Hong Kong, Chinese Government (with extension the party) cannot be seen as conceding its rightful claims.
President Xi’s speech featured lessons for other nations with which China has territorial disputes as China clarifies that it will protect its interests with whatever means necessary. In an earlier speech, on Army Day, August 2017, Xi made it abundantly clear that China will not relinquish any piece of Chinese territory.
India, which has the longest disputed border with China, must observe caution as the same assertive behaviour, with the new perception of Chinese power, will translate into tough, unilateral actions to consolidate boundary. Nations such as Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, India and Taiwan are more likely to face a belligerent and powerful China, with increased indications of militarisation in Indo-Pacific region.
In this context, the new thought “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in New Era” can be understood as a strategy for the next three decades. According to Xi, in these years China will achieve national rejuvenation where it will have a world’s best military, and a “military is built to fight”. China certainly has made its departure from “keeping low profile to striving for achievement”, but as Deng Xiaoping had mentioned, “We will only become a big political power if we keep a low profile (Tao Guan Yang Hui) and work hard for some years; and we will then have more weight in international affairs”. The “New Era” symbolises the next phase in China’s rise, where China has more weight in international affairs, a power that it ought to use to achieve its core interests. Since these interests clash with other sovereign state, a conflict is due in the region.
(The writer is a researcher at IDSA and PhD scholar at Center for East Asian Studies, JNU, New Delhi).