Brain Stormer: Will Mayawati’s Magic Work Again?

With Mayawati scoring just zero in the last Lok Sabha election in 2014, some of the political pundits are entirely leaving hope over her party coming back to power in the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh (UP). The way Modi-Shah magic brought the BJP to capture the record number of seats in UP for LS polls may be repeated once more, as many feels.

The receding popularity of Samajwadi Party (SP) with inexperienced Akhilesh Yadav as Chief Minister and hundreds of cases of rape and violence doing the rounds in the State, the party may surely lose. Congress, a force already facing the worst of its leadership crisis and fast fading its popularity with Rahul Gandhi, may not be counted as a contender in the UP poll at all. Then who will capture power inUP?

Talking about the chances of Mayawati, it seems she is standing a better position than of course SP.BJP must be encountering some of its hardest battles in UP for its handling of Una Dalit case, attacks on Muslims, situation in Jammu & Kashmir etc. But the Modi-Shah duo will probably be ready for all these big battles once they approach the voters in UP. Beyond the idiom of development and modernity, Modi now needs an answer for the simmering conflicts in J&K. Can Mayawatihave an edge over BJP as there is an increasing tendency of the Dalits and Muslims coming together in UP? Disillusioned with the SP and distanced from the BJP, the Muslims may go for BSP as they are projected as equally the victims of the current Government at the centre like the Dalits.

With Una tragedy, the Dalits are slowly coming together towards Mayawati. But she had lost a large constituency of Dalit votes to BJP and it would be difficult for her to win them again. For her the Jatavs, the largest Dalit group to which she belongs and constitute around 55 percent of the UP Dalits, may be the sole hope. It is believed that they are behind her. In reality, the Jatavs are also not fully committed to her as she could not deliver much to them in the last regime. Hence the BJP may work hard and attract as many Dalit votes as it can. The final battle may be between the BSP and the BJP only. Let’s see how Maya’s magic works.