India would be left with lesser cotton surplus this time to export as the boll worm infestation may bring down production, despite higher acreage.

The Cotton Association of India had earlier estimated that cotton crop for the 2017-18 season would be 375 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which is 37.75 lakh bales higher than previous year’s crop of 337.25 lakh bales.

The estimate was made on the basis of increase in area under cotton cultivation to 122 lakh hectares against 105 lakh hectares last year.

However, pink bollworm has damaged BT cotton crop in parts of Maharashtra like Yavatmal, Wardha and Jalna.

The state government is conducting surveys to ascertain the real impact of the boll worm infestation and it has also assured compensation for the farmers. 

Reuters quoted V N Waghmare, director of the Central Institute for Cotton Research, saying that pink bollworms are now developing resistance to the BT technology.  

“The pink boll worm infestation is expected to bring down the production to around 340 to 350 lakh bales, as per different trade estimates. The Cotton Corporation of India has not come up with an estimate on this,” said Ritesh Kumar Sahu, fundamental analyst, agri commodities, Angel Commodities.

“The industry consumes 310 to 320 lakh bales every year and imports another 20 lakh bales of extra long staple fibres, which are not available here is adequate quantities. If the production comes down the surplus quantity left for exports will shrink,” said K Selvaraju, secretary general Southern Indian Mills Association.

Earlier estimates had found the country was likely to export 75 lakh bales due to higher production. But now that production is lesser, even after adding carryover stocks, the exportable quantity could be lesser than 60 lakh bales.

According to industry insiders, exports will also depend upon the price of the Indian cotton against international cotton. “Due to proximity, Vietnam and Bangladesh have been buying cotton from India.

But this year, China, US and Australia are having good cotton crop. This will put pressure on prices. If the Indian prices are high, the demand in the international market will come down and this will affect our exports,’ said Sahu.