Gujarat Assembly election: BJP likely to announce Patidar candidate as CM

The BJP in Gujarat appears to be on backfoot with the young Patidar leaders rallying against the party and threatening that the entire community might vote against it.

If sources in the party are to be believed, BJP might announce a clear chief ministerial candidate in Gujarat, and this person could be a Patidar leader. Speculations are rife, it could be deputy chief minister Nitin Patel, senior state party leader Purshottam Rupala, state party president Jitu Vaghani or any other leader who has a standing in the community.

At the moment, BJP President Amit Shah, has announced that the elections are being fought under the leadership of Nitin Patel and incumbent chief minister Vijay Rupani. It is therefore assumed that this leadership will be repeated if the party comes to power.

There is no categorical statement that Rupani or Patel will be the CM candidate.

If the party announces a Patidar face as a CM candidate, it would be a masterstroke to counter the agitation led by Hardik Patel since the last two years.

This would also be clinching because Congress cannot match this promise. For one, it doesn't have a towering Patidar leader who can legitimately lay claim to the top post. Besides, Congress's top leadership consists of Kshatriya leaders, who are infact seen as Patidars' nemesis.

Moreover, the Grand Old Party has maintained that it fights elections on party symbol and ideology, not personality cult.

In effect, the BJP's announcement could possibly topple the Congress's carefully built apple cart.

"We were expecting the name would be announced by mid-November. Infact, we are surprised it has been delayed. It is now expected Narendra Modi will announce it when he visits Gujarat around November 24," a senior leader from BJP confided.

Since the last two decades, the BJP has enjoyed electoral support of Patidars. The party has in return a noteworthy line up of Patidars as its top leadership to show for it.

Gujarat's chief ministers before and after Narendra Modi were Patidars - Keshubhai Patel and Anandiben Patel, respectively.

However, a year ago, when Anandiben Patel stepped down in October last year, it wasn't taken very kindly by the community. They blamed BJP for her ouster, though she had resigned of her own volition, without any apparent pressure from the party.

Following her resignation, Mehsana MLA Nitin Patel, who was then the finance minister, was expected to be the CM. He had infact even made an announcement and started celebrations, but this resulted in a big loss of face for him when Rupani's name was announced.

Patidars are believed to make up about 18% of the electorate and have a sway over nearly 58 seats in the 182 seat Assembly. In Vijay Rupani's cabinet nearly 10 senior and junior ministers belonged to the community.

Hardik Patel has been leading a movement demanding reservation for the Patidar community under the OBC category. BJP has offered its inclusion for reservation under the Economically Backward Class (EBC), which would not be specific to the Patidars, but would include them.

This has so far been unacceptable to Hardik's team.

Congress on the other hand claims to have worked out a formula to give reservation to the party under the OBC. This formula is yet to be made public. If this actually works out, the Patidars may tilt towards the Congress in huge numbers.

In such a scenario, a Patidar CM candidate of the BJP would atleast split the votes in a community that is known to vote enmasse.