THE end of winter heralds for Jammu & Kashmir not just warmer weather but hotter politics. In preparation for the upcoming elections, a staggering 600 candidates had tiled their nominations for the state's 76 assembly seats by last fortnight. It is now abundantly clear that each constituency is going to witness multi cornered battles. The centre stage, however, is occupied by the coalition between the National Conference (nc) of Farooq Abdullah and the Congress(I). Even though these two parties have run coalition governments in the past, this is the first time that they are preparing for a major election as allies.
The J&K elections will be the testing ground to decide whether Rajiv's politics of accords with regional parties can be carried to its logical culmination. Of the four accords he has signed- including J&K-three (Assam. Mizoram and Punjab) have disintegrated into political animosities in which the Congress(I) has found itself at electoral loggerheads with the very regional parties with which the accords were signed. And in each case the Congress(l) lost the elections. But in J&K, the election scenario seems to favour the NC(F)-Congress(I) coalition.
The thorny question of the distribution of seats between both parties was resolved amicably and Rajiv and Farooq have decided to campaign together. Said Najma Heptullah, the aicc(i) general secretary in charge of the state: "The entire issue was sorted out on the basis of mutual accommodation. Both of us have decided to fight for national integrity." While the nc(f) will contest 45 seats-eight in Jammu, 36 in the valley and one in Leh, the Congress(I) will fight for 31 seats including seven in the valley.
But, typically for the Congress(I), it struggled for an intra-party consensus on the 31 candidates till the last minute. Factional fights between Kashmir Congress(I) leaders at the Centre and at the state level held up the finalisation of the list. Finally, 11 of the sitting MLAs including the leader of the Congress(I) Legislature Party, Maulvi Iftiquar Hussain Ansari, were dropped. The party's emphasis was on fielding candiates with a clean image so that it could ward off the bJp's formidable challenge in Jammu. The Congress(I) had won 23 of the 32 seats in the Jammu region in 1982.
The issues in the election have also been clearly delineated. The Opposition particularly the bjp is seeking votes by attacking the accord which it alleges is based on opportunism. The Congress(I)-NC(F) alliance is determined to blunt this thrust by firmly stating that the accord will ensure the unity of the country. Said Farooq: "By contesting the election as partners we are determined to prove that not only can we retain our own Kashmir identity but be part of the national mainstream as well."
But the selection of candidates by Farooq raises some troubling questions about the future stability of the coalition. Among those he has nominated are P.L. Handoo, Mohammad Shan and Abdul Rahim, all former ministers, who were dropped from the state cabinet by Farooq himself because they were considered to be hawks and against any accord with the Centre.
At the same time Farooq has annoyed a section of the Congress Party by withdrawing most of the development and reform schemes initiated by Governor Jagmohan during the period of Central rule in the state. Many of these programmes had benefitted Congress(I)-held constituencies. In addition, Farooq has reappointed the ad hoc district recruitment panels which are the primary vehicles for providing jobs and patronage for nc workers. These actions have revived the age-old charge from Congressmen that the nc programme is essentially a communal scheme to help the majority community in the valley. The coalition may be a stable one in the short run but the danger signals for trouble ahead have already begun manifesting themselves.