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Nov 9, 2017, 11.47 PM IST

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One year of Demonetisation

DeMo anniversary: How cash ban changed outlook for sectors and stocks

ETMarkets.com|
Updated: Nov 08, 2017, 03.05 PM IST
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While some sectors or stocks benefitted from the same, some were fairly impacted.
While some sectors or stocks benefitted from the same, some were fairly impacted.
NEW DELHI: Today’s the first anniversary of the Modi government's mega demonetisation drive that shook the whole country.

The development has been credited with buoyancy in domestic flows to equities, with the channelising of domestic savings to banks and from banks to financial instruments, including equity-linked mutual funds.

For MD and CEO of BSE Ashishkumar Chauhan, demonetisation was a bold and timely move. For him, it was one of the most important stepping stones for introduction of GST, which is going to formalise the domestic economy.

But according to some, the move also disrupted many sectors and stocks, with some companies still not fully recovered from its impact within a quarter, while others trying to overcome the trouble it brought.

"While some sectors or stocks benefitted from the same, some were fairly impacted," Nitasha Shankar, Senior Vice President and Head of Research at YES Securities said.

The analyst has compiled a list of sectors and stocks that have been impacted the most by the cash ban. Here's what she said.

Sectors and stocks impacted the most

Tiles & Ply: The tiles sector has been badly impacted post demonetisation and introduction of GST (rate of 28 per cent) has further impacted growth as the price differential between unorganised and organised players increased, leading to tepid revenues. About four-fifths of tile and ply is used as new demand, with the balance being used as replacement demand; with benign real estate activity post introduction of demonetization and RERA, the growth has been further impacted.
Stocks impacted: Kajaria Ceramics, Somany Ceramics, Century Ply, Green Ply

FMCG: Around 38-40 per cent of FMCG sales happens through the wholesale channel, which largely deals in cash and is not entirely tax compliant. The lower liquidity situation post demonetisation and prudent tax laws of GST have not led this channel to be completely out of woods yet. To offset the loss in demand, most FMCG players are increasing their direct reach and bypassing the wholesale channel.
Stocks impacted: Emami, Bajaj Corp, Marico, Hindustan Unilever, Colgate

Automobile (2 Wheelers): Post demonetisation, cash flows of rural India (majorly a cash economy) were impacted the most due to liquidity crunch. This impacted sales of two-wheeler companies, which have sizeable sales in rural parts of the country. However, sales have picked up once the liquidity crisis eased.
Stocks impacted: Hero Moto, TVS Motors, Bajaj Auto

Consumer Durables: High ticket purchases, especially in the white goods space, were impacted post demonetisation. However, sales did improve over subsequent quarters as the liquidity situation got better.
Stocks impacted: Whirlpool of India, IFB Industries

Luggage: With the luggage industry being levied by a GST rate of 28 per cent, it has widened the gap between the organised and unorganised players. This has made it difficult for the large players to completely pass on prices to customers.
Stocks impacted: VIP Industries, Safari Industries

Stocks and sectors that benefitted the most

Jewellers: Demonetisation and GST made it difficult for smaller jewellers to do business as majority of their transaction were done with cash. As more than 70 per cent of jewellery sales used to happen through unorganized or regional players, it led to a structural shift in demand to organized players leading to strong sales growth.
Stocks benefitted: Titan Industries, PC Jewellers, TBZ

Brokerages: As per estimates, demonetisation brought back almost Rs 2-3 lakh crore of money into the mainstream economy, which was supposedly lying ideal. With real estate in the doldrums and uncertainty in gold prices as well as the low rates of debt instruments, equities has emerged as the only investable asset class leading to huge inflows of money towards the same. This has led to healthy growth in revenues for brokerage houses.
Stocks benefitted: Motilal Oswal, Edelweiss, JM Financials

Retail (Modern Trade): For FMCG products, Wholesale channel was impacted due to liquidity crunch which led to increase in market share for Modern retail. Modern trade, which use to be 9 per cent of overall FMCG revenue is expected to double in next 5 years.
Stocks benefitted: Future Retail, Avenue Supermart, V-Mart
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