Gujarat polls: 2015 civic polls gave first signal of Congress’s revival
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Updated: Nov 01, 2017, 11.48 AM IST
AHMEDABAD: The political barometer hit boiling point in Gujarat ahead of the crucial local body polls in December 2015, when the influential Patidars, upset with the state government for not accepting their demand for quota benefits, ran an aggressive campaign against BJP. This was the first electoral test for BJP in the post-Modi era.
The agitation had a clear impact on elections in more than 300 local bodies that had gone to polls that year. While the BJP suffered a major setback, the Congress increased its seats from 29% in 2010 local body polls to 47.52% in 2015. On the other hand, the BJP, which had bagged 64.09% seats in the 2010 local body polls could garner only 47.27% of total seats.
The December 2015 polls had also brought forth a split in rural and urban voting patterns. The BJP fared well in terms of seat share in local bodies in cities and towns, while the Congress swept the taluka panchayat and district panchayats. The Congress won 23 of the 31 district panchayats while the BJP retained only eight district panchayats. In 2010, all of the 31 district panchayats were with BJP. The Congress captured 146 of the 230 taluka panchayats.
The BJP swept the polls in six of the eight major municipal corporations. In Rajkot, a strong BJP bastion, the party won 38 seats — just four seats ahead of the Congress in the 72-seat Rajkot Municipal Corporation (RMC).
In the nagarpalika elections, BJP may have won 43 of the 52 nagarpalikas which went to polls, but the vote share for the BJP fell by 2.92% while the Congress recorded a gain of 6.09% in votes. The overall vote share of the BJP was 46.60% while that of the Congress was 43.52%. This 3% gap is far lower than the average 10% gap between the BJP and Congress in the last four assembly elections.
The 2015 election results also popped some interesting trends — like the Congress had gained more in terms of vote share in urban areas when compared to rural areas. For instance, the Congress increased its overall vote share by over 10% in 56 municipalities and over 7% in six municipal corporations. The Congress improved its vote share by 3.56% in taluka panchayats and by by 3.89% in district panchayats.
Yamal Vyas, BJP spokesperson, said "In 2010 the Congress failed to get mass support because of BJP's aggressive campaigning and Modi's presence, but in 2015, due to Patidar agitation, the Congress gained more ground.
"2017 will be different for the BJP because you cannot compare assembly and local body polls," added Vyas
Senior Congress leader Arjun Modhwadia, said, "Back in 2010, we did not have a strong grassroots worker network and hence we lost many local body seats. In 2015, apart from agitating Patidars who raised the 'defeat BJP' call, there were other factors including anti-incumbency and anger over lack of irrigation water and minimum support prices that worked in Congress's favour."
Modhwadia added, "In 2017, we will fight elections largely on issues like GST and demonetization."
The agitation had a clear impact on elections in more than 300 local bodies that had gone to polls that year. While the BJP suffered a major setback, the Congress increased its seats from 29% in 2010 local body polls to 47.52% in 2015. On the other hand, the BJP, which had bagged 64.09% seats in the 2010 local body polls could garner only 47.27% of total seats.
The December 2015 polls had also brought forth a split in rural and urban voting patterns. The BJP fared well in terms of seat share in local bodies in cities and towns, while the Congress swept the taluka panchayat and district panchayats. The Congress won 23 of the 31 district panchayats while the BJP retained only eight district panchayats. In 2010, all of the 31 district panchayats were with BJP. The Congress captured 146 of the 230 taluka panchayats.
The BJP swept the polls in six of the eight major municipal corporations. In Rajkot, a strong BJP bastion, the party won 38 seats — just four seats ahead of the Congress in the 72-seat Rajkot Municipal Corporation (RMC).
In the nagarpalika elections, BJP may have won 43 of the 52 nagarpalikas which went to polls, but the vote share for the BJP fell by 2.92% while the Congress recorded a gain of 6.09% in votes. The overall vote share of the BJP was 46.60% while that of the Congress was 43.52%. This 3% gap is far lower than the average 10% gap between the BJP and Congress in the last four assembly elections.
The 2015 election results also popped some interesting trends — like the Congress had gained more in terms of vote share in urban areas when compared to rural areas. For instance, the Congress increased its overall vote share by over 10% in 56 municipalities and over 7% in six municipal corporations. The Congress improved its vote share by 3.56% in taluka panchayats and by by 3.89% in district panchayats.
Yamal Vyas, BJP spokesperson, said "In 2010 the Congress failed to get mass support because of BJP's aggressive campaigning and Modi's presence, but in 2015, due to Patidar agitation, the Congress gained more ground.
"2017 will be different for the BJP because you cannot compare assembly and local body polls," added Vyas
Senior Congress leader Arjun Modhwadia, said, "Back in 2010, we did not have a strong grassroots worker network and hence we lost many local body seats. In 2015, apart from agitating Patidars who raised the 'defeat BJP' call, there were other factors including anti-incumbency and anger over lack of irrigation water and minimum support prices that worked in Congress's favour."
Modhwadia added, "In 2017, we will fight elections largely on issues like GST and demonetization."
(This article was originally published in The Times of India)
