NDA is slipping up on the economy, but is propelled by the TINA factor
TOI Contributor|
Updated: Nov 01, 2017, 08.09 PM IST
By: Bindu Dalmia
This is a crucial time in BJP's messaging as voters begin to weigh their options which will hinge on the pace of economic recovery, and how soon the challenge of absorbing 10 million youth into the workforce annually converts to a demographic dividend. Should job creation fall short of the mark, it could lead to successive electoral slides in state elections (not necessarily losses), civil unrest, and weakening of Modi's authority within the Parivar.
If Congress is like a private limited company solely dependent on the Gandhis as vote catchers, BJP is like a public limited company which, despite its decentralised hegemony , is also dependent on one man to win state or national elections. If Congress is a one-family show, BJP is a one-man show.
This is also the political season for the re-launch of a re-branded Rahul who has remained at the cusp of elevation since a decade to become Congress president. However, after opinion polls project a satisfactory BJP win in both Gujarat and HP, Congress in its predictable style is expected to shield Rahul by deferring his blockbuster release.
But are fears of doom and gloom exaggerated as we 'sit out' the global economic recovery? Rectifications hint at internally admitting to the exigency at hand, albeit confined within the BJP's `echo chambers', while not sending out alarm signals. Fortunately Modi the man is not known to live with errors of judgment for long, especially when results have not matched expectations.
We saw that resilience in strategy after BJP lost Delhi and Bihar, followed by successive electoral wins; and now yet again as Team Modi re-calibrates GST policy shortfalls. How much exactly has the Modi sarkar slid in its popularity ratings, and to what extent have the twin reforms of demonetisation and GST impacted BJP's voter base?
As the Kurukshetra in the battle of perceptions shifts from the Centre to only happen with this government's last Union budget in 2018.
Modi is perhaps the most powerful orator this century. But it is time to reach out with the balm of policies that mitigate pain, which powerful rhetoric cannot camouflage. Grim as it is, dreamers and optimists see things which are not, even the unborn flower in arid terrain.
Though it is hard to convince skeptics voicing misplaced cynicism, if we don't support a strong second term for Modi, we are stuck for another half decade with political dinosaurs regrouping to form a khichri government, which is a scarier thought. Better times can still surprise on the upside by reconnecting disrupted supply chains in the economy and reviving business sentiments.
Government must adhere to a Gujarat elections in gauging economic discontent, answers will come from the scale of victory in Gujarat elections, just as UP elections became a referendum for demonetisation. A win of anything above 120 out of 182 assembly seats would convincingly restore and regain the Modi momentum.
But as of now economic restiveness runs high, with growth propellers for economic revival missing and captains of industry concerned. The slowdown is BJP's biggest wake up call, as PwC research states India needs to grow at 9% annually for 20 successive years to graduate to becoming a middle-income economy . Benchmarked against this goal, playing 'catch-up' is a long climb.
However, recent downgrades by World Bank and IMF predict light at the end of the tunnel for regaining momentum to 8% growth in sync with global economic activity after bottoming out, though it is difficult to time recovery .The growth trajectory is non-linear in nature and figures are selectively cherry-picked, depending on which side of the political fence one stands.
While remedial measures look to pursue the Keynesian template of government by 'spending more to grow more' in times of slowdown which will unbalance fiscal deficit, a 'buoyancy clause' if adhered to is known to readjust the overspend after recovery . The other two panaceas to increase savings and consumption necessitate lowering corporate and personal taxes, which can predictable tax regime, as one is reminded of the “toxic retrospective tax" that tarnished UPA's image with foreign and Indian investors. Team Modi must retrace some missteps to project his earlier business-friendly image that inspired confidence, because being pro-poor does not mean turning anti-rich, and the private sector is the lifeline of a liberal economy.
Also, Modi of 2014 was not populist.He favoured fostering sustained employment over MGNREGA subsidised welfare schemes of UPA and farm loan waivers, which was the right yardstick of gauging vibrant economic progress.
If demonetisation and GST foster economic cleansing they should be followed by a period of hand holding between government and citizenry.Should quarterly growth rebound and BJP make gains in serial state elections it would salvage lost ground, indicating a positive shift in perceptions.
A belief that is gaining ground is that BJP is better at winning elections than delivering on promises. Paradoxically , despite economic strain, opinion polls reflect it is still advantage Modi. But should the back-end of Team Modi underperform on its economic report card it undermines Brand Modi, the party's only winning mascot.
The writer is an author and columnist. Views expressed here are personal
This is a crucial time in BJP's messaging as voters begin to weigh their options which will hinge on the pace of economic recovery, and how soon the challenge of absorbing 10 million youth into the workforce annually converts to a demographic dividend. Should job creation fall short of the mark, it could lead to successive electoral slides in state elections (not necessarily losses), civil unrest, and weakening of Modi's authority within the Parivar.
If Congress is like a private limited company solely dependent on the Gandhis as vote catchers, BJP is like a public limited company which, despite its decentralised hegemony , is also dependent on one man to win state or national elections. If Congress is a one-family show, BJP is a one-man show.
This is also the political season for the re-launch of a re-branded Rahul who has remained at the cusp of elevation since a decade to become Congress president. However, after opinion polls project a satisfactory BJP win in both Gujarat and HP, Congress in its predictable style is expected to shield Rahul by deferring his blockbuster release.
But are fears of doom and gloom exaggerated as we 'sit out' the global economic recovery? Rectifications hint at internally admitting to the exigency at hand, albeit confined within the BJP's `echo chambers', while not sending out alarm signals. Fortunately Modi the man is not known to live with errors of judgment for long, especially when results have not matched expectations.
We saw that resilience in strategy after BJP lost Delhi and Bihar, followed by successive electoral wins; and now yet again as Team Modi re-calibrates GST policy shortfalls. How much exactly has the Modi sarkar slid in its popularity ratings, and to what extent have the twin reforms of demonetisation and GST impacted BJP's voter base?
As the Kurukshetra in the battle of perceptions shifts from the Centre to only happen with this government's last Union budget in 2018.
Modi is perhaps the most powerful orator this century. But it is time to reach out with the balm of policies that mitigate pain, which powerful rhetoric cannot camouflage. Grim as it is, dreamers and optimists see things which are not, even the unborn flower in arid terrain.
Though it is hard to convince skeptics voicing misplaced cynicism, if we don't support a strong second term for Modi, we are stuck for another half decade with political dinosaurs regrouping to form a khichri government, which is a scarier thought. Better times can still surprise on the upside by reconnecting disrupted supply chains in the economy and reviving business sentiments.
Government must adhere to a Gujarat elections in gauging economic discontent, answers will come from the scale of victory in Gujarat elections, just as UP elections became a referendum for demonetisation. A win of anything above 120 out of 182 assembly seats would convincingly restore and regain the Modi momentum.
But as of now economic restiveness runs high, with growth propellers for economic revival missing and captains of industry concerned. The slowdown is BJP's biggest wake up call, as PwC research states India needs to grow at 9% annually for 20 successive years to graduate to becoming a middle-income economy . Benchmarked against this goal, playing 'catch-up' is a long climb.
However, recent downgrades by World Bank and IMF predict light at the end of the tunnel for regaining momentum to 8% growth in sync with global economic activity after bottoming out, though it is difficult to time recovery .The growth trajectory is non-linear in nature and figures are selectively cherry-picked, depending on which side of the political fence one stands.
While remedial measures look to pursue the Keynesian template of government by 'spending more to grow more' in times of slowdown which will unbalance fiscal deficit, a 'buoyancy clause' if adhered to is known to readjust the overspend after recovery . The other two panaceas to increase savings and consumption necessitate lowering corporate and personal taxes, which can predictable tax regime, as one is reminded of the “toxic retrospective tax" that tarnished UPA's image with foreign and Indian investors. Team Modi must retrace some missteps to project his earlier business-friendly image that inspired confidence, because being pro-poor does not mean turning anti-rich, and the private sector is the lifeline of a liberal economy.
Also, Modi of 2014 was not populist.He favoured fostering sustained employment over MGNREGA subsidised welfare schemes of UPA and farm loan waivers, which was the right yardstick of gauging vibrant economic progress.
If demonetisation and GST foster economic cleansing they should be followed by a period of hand holding between government and citizenry.Should quarterly growth rebound and BJP make gains in serial state elections it would salvage lost ground, indicating a positive shift in perceptions.
A belief that is gaining ground is that BJP is better at winning elections than delivering on promises. Paradoxically , despite economic strain, opinion polls reflect it is still advantage Modi. But should the back-end of Team Modi underperform on its economic report card it undermines Brand Modi, the party's only winning mascot.
The writer is an author and columnist. Views expressed here are personal
