Maize prices have started rising after staying stable in September as the unseasonal rains damaged crop in some parts of the country, which may further lower the estimated kharif production. Rains have damaged crops in parts of south India, which could not only affect the quality but also the quantity, said Amit Sachdev, south Asia representative of the US grains council, in a report on October 24.

The agriculture ministry to be lower this year at 18.73 million tonnes, down from 19.24 million tonnes in 2016-17 has already projected Kharif output.

Sachdeva said maize arrivals have started in market yards of different states and the prices suddenly witnessed a spurt. On September 22, spot maize price in Jalgaon was Rs 13,300 a tonne and on October 18, it rose to Rs 13,500 a tonne. Prices at Sangli in Maharashtra also increased by Rs 150 a tonne in the same period. But prices in Davangere, the largest market in Karnataka, were down from Rs 15,250 a tonne on September 22 to Rs 14,600 a tonne on October 18, may be due to subdued Diwali demand for the feed.

According to an NCDEX research report, prices fell during September compared with August in all major maize producing states. Weak undertone was observed in the maize market during September as prices fell by more than 8 per cent in spot as well as futures market. In physical markets too, prices have seen a fall across states like Telangana, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. In these states, spot prices fell by 8-10 per cent in September compared with August.

Arrivals of fresh crop are earlier by around 15 days this year against the last year as the crop growth conditions were largely favourable. The quality of the grain is reported to be good in Nizamabad, a major maize market.

But it’s mainly the moisture content, which is causing considerable variation in prices. The fresh crop produce, having more than 14 per cent moisture content got lower prices. In Telangana, the government started procurement at MSP (Rs 1,425 per quintal). The government has put an acceptable level benchmark of 14 per cent moisture level in the fresh maize crop. With the passage of time, the moisture level will reduce and the procurement programme will pick up momentum.

The harvest of US corn continues. As of week ended October 20, as much as 28 per cent of total estimated output has been harvested there. Weather is good now for harvest and that seems to help in easing the corn prices in the US. While US corn arrivals at the elevators will be good, for crops sold earlier, if the prices do remain low, US farmers will tend to store the crop at the farm level. The harvest at this point is delayed, as over 90 per cent of the crop is mature. As the weather improves, the harvest pace too will increase.

In the end of September, the corn price on CBOT was $139.83 per tonne (December delivery); $144.71 per tonne (March contract) and $148.10 per tonne (May delivery). The corn futures have eased to $135.58 per tonne (December); $141.90 per tonne (Mar) $144.56 per tonne (May) as of October 20. Agrentine corn prices were indicated at $147 per tonne, Brazil at $151 per tonne and Black Sea (Ukrainian) at $153 per tonne.

As per the USDA report, 2017-18, global maize production is estimated to remain at 1,032.6 million tonnes compared with 1,071.2 million tonnes during 2016-17, a decline of 3.6 per cent. The U.S maize output is projected higher.

prabhudatta.m@mydigitalfc.com