It's a Happy Diwali for PM Narendra Modi: New data offers short reprieve
ECONOMICTIMES.COM|
Oct 14, 2017, 05.10 PM IST
The Narendra Modi government recently slashing duties on petrol and diesel and lowering several Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates indicated that it had finally accepted all was not well with the economy. The narrative that the Modi government was failing on the economic front had grown to be a big challenge for Modi.
Modi's own senior party leader and former finance minister Yashwant Sinha railed against the government for its economic failures and put it on the back foot. Modi had successfully deflected all attacks so far, but he seemed perturbed by the charge of derailing the economy with bad experimentation. This time, attack on Modi was backed with hard facts. GDP growth had been revised downward not just by World Bank and IMF but also the Reserve Bank of India.
Amid all the criticism and hopelessness, Diwali looked bleak for Modi. But then came the economic data that can take wind out of sails of Modi critics and brighten Modi's Diwali.
The index of industrial production (IIP) rose 4.3 per cent in August, reversing a contraction in June and faster than a 0.9 per cent rise in July, exceeding expectations and raising hope the economy is set for a revival after slumping to a three-year low in the June quarter. There was more cheers for Modi. India's annual consumer inflation in September marginally eased to 3.28 per cent from a year ago. The expectation had been for inflation of 3.5 per cent and industrial growth of around 2.5 per cent.
Yet another set of data dispelled the gloom: India's trade deficit narrowed to $8.98 billion in September, its lowest in seven months. Merchandise exports rose sharply in September, belying fears of a slump due to disruption and working capital issues brought on by the introduction of the goods and services tax. Exports climbed 25.67 per cent in September, exceeding an 18.1 per cent increase in imports, helping to narrow the trade deficit to $8.98 billion from $9.07 billion in September 2016.
After a series of gloomy numbers and critics from all sides pouncing on Modi for economic mismanagement, the latest numbers offer Modi a short reprieve and will make his critics sound too harsh. The data suggests manufacturing and demand are returning to normal after the disruption caused by the GST rollout, though not as strongly as anticipated.
These numbers do not indicate that the economy is out of the woods now. For that, the numbers will have to be consistently good for several next quarters. Yet, they weaken arguments of Modi's critics that the economy has been ruined, thus giving Modi a reprieve from attacks.
The new numbers will buttress the Modi government's case that the economy is on the path to recovery. Yielding to attacks by opponents and accepting the general negative sentiment about the economy, the government had even planned for a fiscal stimulus. In it recent first meeting, the newly formed Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council has ruled out the need for a stimulus. Now Modi has space to not take decisions that aim only at the short term and don't help the economy in the medium or long term.
Modi's own senior party leader and former finance minister Yashwant Sinha railed against the government for its economic failures and put it on the back foot. Modi had successfully deflected all attacks so far, but he seemed perturbed by the charge of derailing the economy with bad experimentation. This time, attack on Modi was backed with hard facts. GDP growth had been revised downward not just by World Bank and IMF but also the Reserve Bank of India.
Amid all the criticism and hopelessness, Diwali looked bleak for Modi. But then came the economic data that can take wind out of sails of Modi critics and brighten Modi's Diwali.
The index of industrial production (IIP) rose 4.3 per cent in August, reversing a contraction in June and faster than a 0.9 per cent rise in July, exceeding expectations and raising hope the economy is set for a revival after slumping to a three-year low in the June quarter. There was more cheers for Modi. India's annual consumer inflation in September marginally eased to 3.28 per cent from a year ago. The expectation had been for inflation of 3.5 per cent and industrial growth of around 2.5 per cent.
Yet another set of data dispelled the gloom: India's trade deficit narrowed to $8.98 billion in September, its lowest in seven months. Merchandise exports rose sharply in September, belying fears of a slump due to disruption and working capital issues brought on by the introduction of the goods and services tax. Exports climbed 25.67 per cent in September, exceeding an 18.1 per cent increase in imports, helping to narrow the trade deficit to $8.98 billion from $9.07 billion in September 2016.
After a series of gloomy numbers and critics from all sides pouncing on Modi for economic mismanagement, the latest numbers offer Modi a short reprieve and will make his critics sound too harsh. The data suggests manufacturing and demand are returning to normal after the disruption caused by the GST rollout, though not as strongly as anticipated.
These numbers do not indicate that the economy is out of the woods now. For that, the numbers will have to be consistently good for several next quarters. Yet, they weaken arguments of Modi's critics that the economy has been ruined, thus giving Modi a reprieve from attacks.
The new numbers will buttress the Modi government's case that the economy is on the path to recovery. Yielding to attacks by opponents and accepting the general negative sentiment about the economy, the government had even planned for a fiscal stimulus. In it recent first meeting, the newly formed Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council has ruled out the need for a stimulus. Now Modi has space to not take decisions that aim only at the short term and don't help the economy in the medium or long term.
