Nepal’s politics has a pattern of shifting alliances but the political turnarounds of the recent weeks have converted the forthcoming provincial and federal elections into a battle between two sharply polarised political coalitions.

The provincial elections on November 26 and the federal polls on December 5 will complete the political transition that began with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of November 2006 to a democratically elected Parliament and provincial legislatures under the new Constitution promulgated in September 2015.

The wide spectrum of Left parties sprang a surprise by coming together in a Grand Left Alliance during the politically lean festive period of Dasain. The two main parties, the Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Marxist-Leninists (UML) and the Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist Centre were joined by one-time Maoist ideologue, Baburam Bhattarai and his New Force party in an alliance, with the UML and Maoists sharing constituencies in the ration of 60:40. According to the Left leaders, the coming together of the Left groups was meant to ensure political stability with the aim of moving towards “socialist-oriented prosperity.”

The alliance came as a sharp jolt for the Nepali Congress leadership as the Maoists led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ were part of the government headed by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. In his initial reaction, Deuba thought of ejecting the Maoists from the Cabinet, and replacing them with new allies from the Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP), Sanghiya Samajwadi Party Forum Nepal (SSFN), and the two Rashtriya Prajatantra Party groups. But later changed his mind after realising that the Communist Combine is not a done deal and there could be further ripples in that alliance.

The Maoists too were in no hurry to quit the Deuba government with Prachanda assuring Deuba that he would not leave the government till the elections. In the fast changing political landscape of Nepal, it would not be politic to cut off from the Maoists when there is the possibility of ideological strains getting sharper in the future.

The Left Alliance is a startling shift in positions as the UML and the Maoists were on opposite sides during the years of Maoist insurgency; UML was the mainstream political party while the Maoists were insurgents. Till a short time back, UML leader and former prime minister, KP Oli had held Prachanda responsible for bringing down his government in July 2016 by withdrawing support from the ruling coalition. Prachanda had then gone on to become Prime Minister with Nepali Congress support under an agreement to rotate the leadership position with the Nepali Congress.

The two groups can align themselves in the hope of gaining an electoral majority but there is not much goodwill between their cadres. While there will be agreement on distribution of party tickets and seat adjustment and also a pattern of rotation on heading the alliance, the Left parties will not enter the polls under a common banner.

The second round of elections to local bodies changed the power equation between the UML and the Maoists. The UML paid the price for stonewalling the Madhesi demands in the local elections in the Terai region while the Maoists did better than they expected in the region as did the Nepali Congress. The election results forced a realisation that the two Communist parties would give an advantage to the Nepali Congress if they fought each other.

Oli may have lost support among the Madhesis but he had burnished his image by portraying himself as a strong nationalist leader standing up to India during the Madhesi blockade of the border. His talk of development sounded attractive to the public as he turned to China for a highly successful trip where he forged a new relationship through signing a trade and transit agreement with China.  

The Left combination is likely to pose a tough competition for the Nepali Congress, which has made efforts to build its own coalition to counter the Left group. A Leftist victory would move Nepal closer to China. China’s economic and political influence has increased in Nepal in recent years. For a long time, Beijing concentrated on economic cooperation with Nepal and restricting its political concerns to the Tibetan issue, ensuring that Kathmandu kept Tibetan refugees on a tight rein, and often sending them back to Tibet. But Beijing made its known its displeasure to Prachanda for ousting the KP Oli government. Beijing, which is now well ensconced in Nepal’s political circles, has always called for a united Left in Nepal.

As Parliament is dissolved according to constitutional provisions before the election process begins, there is talk of a caretaker government in Kathmandu. The polls could be a defining election for Nepal and the faction ridden Nepali Congress will have to merge as a unified force together with its allies to meet the formidable Left challenge.