The Reserve Bank is expected to cut the interest rate in December amid receding inflation, and signal lower rates before the busy October-March industrial season intensifies, says a report.
According to global financial services major Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML), retail inflation is expected to stay muted at around 3.5% in September and 3.3% in October, which will give RBI the room to ease interest rates.
India’s retail inflation had swelled to 5-month high of 3.36% in August on the back of costlier vegetables and fruits.
According to the report, a spike in the prices of tomato and onions is receding, and this will ease inflation going forward as a 5% change in agflation (rising food prices caused by increased demand for agricultural commodities) impacts CPI inflation by 50 bps.
BofAML said fresh supplies are likely to have pulled down tomato prices by 32% month-on-month in September and on top of that, by 25% month-on-month in October so far.
Moreover, onion prices have also corrected 4.4% in October so far with imports from Egypt, the report said, adding that this has pulled down tractable overall agflation to 1.4% in September and 0.5% in October.
“We grow more confident of our call of a 25 bps RBI rate cut on December 6 with the spikes in tomato and onion prices receding,” BofAML said.
The rate cut, it added, will signal a bank lending rate cut before the ‘busy’ October-March industrial season intensifies.
The report noted that lending rate cuts will spur demand, put idle factories to work, exhaust capacity and spark off investment.
Reserve Bank of India, in its policy review meet on October 4, kept benchmark interest rate unchanged on fears of rising inflation while lowering growth forecast to 6.7% for the current fiscal.