Bill 148: CANCEA's risk assessment

TORONTO, ON--(Marketwired - September 27, 2017) - CANCEA's report on Bill 148 (the Act) has been released today by the Keep Ontario Working coalition. It represents a much needed exercise in risk assessment of the impacts of the Act. The intention is to support policy makers' understanding of the size and shape of the inherent risks and rewards resulting from the Act and to identify unintended negative consequences.

"Bill 148 is a significant piece of legislation, the effects of which will touch all Ontarians. Given its size, significance and suddenness, Bill 148 comes with rewards for some and risks for others." said Paul Smetanin, President of CANCEA. The risk assessment of the Act indicates that while several million Ontarians are expected to be positively affected directly or via a family member, the Act will affect all Ontarians as it:

• Creates a $23 billion challenge for Ontario businesses in just the first 2 years. This is equal to 100% of the corporate tax revenues paid to the Ontario government each year;
• Induces a reaction by businesses that is expected to:
  • put 185,000 jobs at risk over the coming years; and
  • increase prices for households by up to $1,300 per annum per household.
• Disproportionally exposes small and medium size businesses (SMEs) to additional costs compared to their larger competitors. SMEs employ 56% of Ontario's private labour force, with those business owners five times more likely to be affected than larger businesses.
• Will be felt more strongly in regions outside the GTA.

"As an independent analytics business, it is our responsibility to be a faithful reporter of what is at reward and what is at risk." said Smetanin. "If the results of our analysis indicate unintended negative consequences of Bill 148, we hope to have inspired an evidence-based risk management response by Ontario."

The report can be found at https://www.cancea.ca/?q=bill148

ABOUT CANCEA

CANCEA is a state-of-the-art interdisciplinary research and technology organization that is dedicated to objective, independent and evidence-based analysis. The study was conducted using CANCEA's modern agent-based modelling and linked-path data approach to economic analysis.