The Centre has asked states to reassess their sugar prod­uction estimates after it was found to be on the higher side as the latest report from the agriculture ministry suggested that sugarcane output may be over 30 million tonnes more than last year.

Cane commissioners of st­ates have informed the fo­od ministry that India could produce 25.84 million ton­n­es sugar in 2017-18 season (October-September). But based on the sugarcane production estimates by the agr­i­culture ministry, released on September 25, the food ministry has pegged the sug­ar output below 25 million tonnes, sources said.

“The estimate is crucial as the sugar policy depends on the assumption of next ye­ar’s output. A correct assessment will help formulate the export-import policy accordingly,” an official said, adding it would further help in controlling prices.

According to the first advance estimate of the agriculture ministry, India’s sugarcane output in 2017-18 crop year (July-June) is exp­e­cted to be 10.09 per cent higher at 337.69 million ton­nes against 306.72 million tonnes in the previous year.

Since the cane output is likely to be 30.97 million to­n­nes higher over last year in absolute term, and ass­u­m­i­ng that all cane is cru­sh­ed in the next season, the ou­t­put would be 3.5 million tonnes higher from 20.1 million to­n­nes produced in 2016-17 at the highest reco­very rate of 11.3 per cent, sources said.

“If the production falls be­l­ow 24 million tonnes next season, India may have to im­port 1-1.5 million tonnes sugar next year,” an industry executive said. Since import decision is not “politically co­rrect” when crushing continues as mills hold back pa­yment of farmers, the government may decide it next year, he added.

Sources said UP has inf­o­r­med the Centre that it wo­u­ld produce 10.3 million ton­nes sugar in 2017-18 against 8.77 million tonnes produ­ced this year. Similarly Maharashtra has also estimated its sugar output to jump to 7.3 million tonnes from 4.2 million tonnes.

prabhudatta.m@mydigitalfc.com