For months, it had been pretty clear that the real question concerning the German federal elections of 2017 was not whether Angela Merkel would emerge the winner but where the greatest challenge to her would come from.
Early this year, it appeared to come from the Left as support for the Social Democratic Party (SPD) surged when Mr. Schulz, former President of the European Parliament, announced his intention to run to lead the party — a position he eventually won — and began campaigning on a platform focused on social justice. However, as it became apparent that the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) would easily cross the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag, the threat posed by the Right started becoming clear.
The extent to which the SPD had lost ground was revealed as Mr. Schulz pledged not to enter another ‘grand alliance’ on Sunday, an acknowledgement of damage the partnership had done to the party, leaving it with little space to criticise Ms. Merkel. His focus around issues of social justice failed to enthuse a nation whose economy has continued to demonstrate resilience through the recent upheavals and uncertainty that have gripped the world economy.
Pressure from Right
Had the SPD not ruled out a coalition, thereby ensuring its position as the main Opposition party, the AfD would have secured this position.
The AfD’s 13% vote share is a sign that the populist forces that have been growing across the world have also gained a firm foothold in Germany. It is the first time that a far-Right party has had such success in post-Second World War Germany.
With the SPD steadfastly refusing to enter a coalition, Germany will enter a period of uncertainty as the CDU and its coalition partner, the Christian Social Union (CSU), attempt to hash out a working coalition, potentially with the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) (the liberals).
As the results began emerging on Sunday night, German television channels were buzzing with heated debates between potential partners, suggesting that great areas of disagreement remain between them, and compromise may be difficult. Indeed analysts were speculating whether a governing coalition could be cobbled together by Christmas.
However, what is clear is that the election results will add greatly to pressure from the Right: the CSU has regional Bavarian elections next autumn and the success of the AfD in Bavaria will increase the pressure for a tougher line on issues such as immigration, with potential knock-on effects on federal policy.
CDU’s base eroded
The results suggest that the complacency that many had about the elections was misplaced. Even before the election, many had suggested the real electoral contest wouldn’t begin until after the federal election, when Ms. Merkel’s successor to lead the CDU would have to begin to be identified. The decline in the party’s support suggests the situation is far more complex, and that levels of discontent had been greatly underestimated — it is notable that in the former East Germany, the far-left Die Linke party and the AfD together commanded nearly 40% of the vote.
The CDU’s stance has so far been one of continuity: “for a Germany that we live well and happily in” playing on Ms. Merkel’s track record and the need for certainty and stability in otherwise unstable times. While it certainly continued to appeal to many, and left the SPD with little ground to attack it on, the results suggest that there are deep pockets of discontent that will have to be addressed to prevent a further populist surge.
The results are likely to add to uncertainty in Europe, already distracted by the tussles over Brexit and particularly because French President Emmanuel Macron has become embroiled in domestic politics. Ms. Merkel has played a leading and crucially calming role in Brexit talks. On Sunday, she maintained the cool which she has become known for, and which will likely be a hugely important factor going forward, quoting a well-known German saying that power is to be found in a calm approach.