India may report 2.8% decline in Kharif grain output due to floods and rain deficit

NEW DELHI: India's Kharif (summer-sown) foodgrain output this year may decline by 2.8% as compared to the last year's estimated production. The dip is attributed to floods and deficit rainfall in certain pockets that led to decrease in overall sown area during June-September period.

Though there are still chances of recovering the lost ground with the help of contingency measures during the upcoming Rabi (winter-sown) season, the estimated dip in Kharif crops - rice, coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds - may affect the annual farm growth during the 2017-18 crop year and even trigger rural distress to an extent.

The agriculture ministry on Monday released its first advance estimate of Kharif crops, putting the estimated foodgrain production figure at 134.67 million tonnes (MT) for 2017-18 as compared to the last year's fourth estimated production of 138.52 MT - a decline by 3.85 MT.

The decline is, however, quite marginal (0.26%) if the first estimate (134.67 MT) of this year is compared with the first estimate (135.03 MT) of last year. The agriculture ministry comes out with five estimates of production for a particular crop year (July-June). Fourth estimate is considered as good as final estimate.

"These are preliminary estimates and will undergo revision based on further feedback from states", said the agriculture ministry in a statement while releasing the first estimate. It noted that the expected production of most of the crops during Kharif season is "estimated to be higher as compared to their normal production of last five years".

The agriculture ministry comes out with five estimates of production for a particular crop year (July-June). Fourth estimate is considered as good as final estimate.

As per the first advance estimate, total production of Kharif rice is estimated at 94.48 MT - lower by 1.91 MT than the last year's record production of 96.39 MT. Similarly, the production of pulses is estimated at 8.71 million tonnes which is lower by 0.72 million tonnes than the last year's record production of 9.42 million tonnes.

The Kharif oilseeds, groundnut, castorseed , sesamum and soyabean, too, reported decline, from 22.40 million tonnes during 2016-17 to 20.68 million tonnes this year.

Sugarcane is, however, reported higher estimated production this year. Its production is estimated at 337.69 MT which is higher by 30.97 MT than the last year's production of 306.72 MT. On the other hand, lower productivity of Cotton has resulted in reduced estimated production of 32.27 million bales (of 170 kg each) as compared to 33.09 million bales during 2016-17 despite higher area coverage in current year.

Referring to the estimated figures, officials noted that the Kharif production in current year is not as bad as it was expected three weeks ago due to deficit rainfall in Madhya Pradesh , Uttar Pradesh and Haryana and floods in Bihar , Assam, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Odisha .

The cumulative rainfall in the country during the monsoon season (June 1 - September 6) has been 5% lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). This deficit and floods saw decline in summer sown area. The Kharif crops have been sown in 104.94 million hectare of land as on September 14 as compared to 105.71 million hectares at this time last year.