Monsoon withdrawal likely to begin soon

NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon is expected to start withdrawing in a few days, ending the season with nearly normal, albeit unevenly distributed, rainfall.

After a brief spell of heavy showers in different parts of the country, favourable conditions for withdrawal of monsoon from parts of northwest India will develop towards the middle of next week, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

Near-normal rainfall this season has helped the country’s kharif crops, which are grown in the monsoon season, but some parts of the country were flooded while 17% of the country received deficient showers. This has dampened hopes for strong agricultural growth compared with last year’s record harvest.

Cumulative rainfall for the monsoon season this year will remain between 95%-96% of long-period average (LPA), a senior IMD official told ET. "It will only go maximum around 96%, not further than that. Our forecast for April 96% of LPA with a +/-5 model error. It will be well within our forecast," the official said.

With total rainfall across the country still in the negative, rainfall in the last few days of September is crucial for an uptick in the overall monsoon performance this season.

"Since the season is ending, the rainfall is usually less, so that may not make much difference to the final figure. But if it rains heavily, that can only improve the overall rainfall," the official said.