Boeing forecasts the Southeast Asia region will require 4,210 new aircraft through 2036, worth a market value of approximately $645 billion, according to the US manufacturer’s Southeast Asia Current Market Outlook released Sept 21. Boeing’s new estimate is 9.1% higher than last year’s projection.

Passenger traffic in the region is expected to continue its annual 6.2% growth rate, exceeding the 4.7% global annual passenger traffic rise.

Boeing projects single-aisle aircraft will make up the bulk (75%) of aircraft deliveries to the region, as the low-cost business model will continue to proliferate as the main driver of Southeast Asian traffic growth.

“Driven by fierce competition and growing passenger demand, airlines in Southeast Asia need the most capable, flexible, economical and passenger-preferred airplanes available,” Boeing Commercial Airplanes SVP-Asia Pacific and India Sales Dinesh Keskar said. “Southeast Asia continues to be one of fastest growing markets in the world … the region accounts for more than 10 percent of the total global demand.”

Over the next 20 years, Boeing predicts Southeast Asia will need:

  • 40 90-seat and below regional jets, valued at less than $5 billion;
  • 3,230 90- to 230-seat single-aisle aircraft, valued at $370 billion;
  • 610 200- to 300-seat small widebody aircraft, valued at $170 billion;
  • 320 300+ seat medium/large widebody aircraft, valued at $110 billion; and
  • 10 freighter widebody aircraft, valued at less than $5 billion.

Boeing projects a worldwide demand for 41,030 new aircraft over the next 20 years, made up of 17,560 replacement aircraft (43% of the total new aircraft) and 23,470 additional aircraft (57% of the total). By 2036, the North American fleet will make up 22% of the world fleet (down from 30% in 2016), China will comprise 18% of the world fleet (up from 14% in 2016) as will Europe, also holding 18% of the world fleet (down from 20% in 2016). Southeast Asia will hold the fourth-largest portion of the world fleet—9% in 2036—up from 6% in 2016.

Mark Nensel mark.nensel@penton.com