Why Kulsoom Nawaz won a critical bypoll in Pakistan

The result of the election was an expected victory for Kulsoom Nawaz, but it has also brought out other significant issues. (Source: File photo)

On September 17, 2017 a by-election took place in Lahore. Usually by-elections are a mundane event. While they do give an indication of the political pulse, seldom do they gain national, or international, importance. However, this by-election in NA-120 was different. It was novel because it was the seat vacated by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif when the Supreme Court disqualified him in July. It was also different because unlike earlier expectations, Nawaz Sharif’s younger brother and Punjab chief minister Shehbaz Sharif did not contest but for the first time, Nawaz’s wife, Kulsoom Nawaz, stood for election in this traditional Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) stronghold.

It was also unique because unlike most contests, this was a match between two women, batting for two men: Kulsoom Nawaz for Nawaz Sharif of the PML(N) and Dr Yasmin Rashid of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) party of Imran Khan. The result of the election was an expected victory for Kulsoom Nawaz, but it has also brought out other significant issues.

This election has brought into debate the political future of Nawaz Sharif’s daughter, Mariam Nawaz. Mariam led the campaign for her ailing mother who is receiving treatment in London for throat cancer; it was also the first time she plunged into electoral politics. While she did deliver a victory for her mother, it was not a resounding one. Not only was the margin of 40,000 votes in 2013 not maintained, it less than halved to 15,000. The turnout also dropped by double digits, showing that the narrative used by Mariam and her father of being wronged by an unelected judiciary and establishment has not resonated with the electorate.

This result has give given Mariam’s detractors within the party the fodder they need to paint her as divisive and unable to lead the party in the next general elections. If this sentiment takes hold it will not bode well for either the party or Pakistan. Aside from her father, Mariam is a key leader who supports democracy and is committed to the idea of a modern, centrist and liberal party and state. If she is eclipsed, the PMLN which has been moving steadily towards the centre under Nawaz in the last few years, will change track and move back to the right. Mariam’s survival is therefore critical if people want to see a democratic, tolerant and progressive Pakistan.

The by-election has also shown, in a limited yet significant way, the rise of the extreme right in Pakistan and the inability (or unwillingness) of the state to rein them in. While the focus was on the two main parties, few noticed that the candidates who came number three and four were from the extreme right wing. Sheikh Azhar Hussain Rizvi who came third with 7,130 votes is member of the Tehrik-e-Labaiq-e-Pakistan (TLP), an extreme right wing party which publicly eulogises Mumtaz Qadri who killed Punjab governor Salmaan Taseer on allegations of blasphemy.

The person who came number four, Mohammad Yaqoob Sheikh, is a member of the newly founded Milli Muslim League, which is the unashamed political front of the banned Jamat-ud-Dawa of Hafiz Saeed. Hence, in a seat in the heart of Pakistan, Lahore, two extreme right wing parties came next in line after the two major political parties.

The rise of these political parties has also led to the relegation of the Jamaat-e-Islami, the mainstream Islamist party, to oblivion with its candidate only receiving a handful of votes. The rise of these extremist parties, their ‘mainstreaming,’ as some are calling it, does not bode well for tolerance, harmony and even the continuation of democracy in Pakistan since all these notions are an anathema to them.

If NA-120 is a microcosm of Pakistan, interesting conclusions can be drawm about the electorate. Both the PML(N) and the PTI treated this election as a critical national election, with the PML(N) harping on about the victimisation narrative and the PTI banking on the corruption argument. The nearly 13% lower turnout clearly showed that none of these arguments impressed the voters. The PML(N) couldn’t muster a winning margin similar to 2013, while the PTI also couldn’t match its 2013 tally. The Pakistan Peoples Party, the traditional liberal and left wing party, was relegated to fifth position in the city of its birth, demonstrating that old names and old slogans are also dead.

The 2018 elections will be the third consecutive democratic elections in Pakistan, and therefore will be uncharted territory. The electorate has changed, issues have developed, and the rising middle class and an increasingly Islamist working class is leading Pakistan in a direction it has never seen.