German business morale dips from record high as retailers fret

Reuters  |  BERLIN 

By Michael Nienaber

(Reuters) - German business confidence fell less than expected in August after climbing to three record highs in a row, suggesting that a consumption-led upswing in Europe's largest will continue despite concern about a car emissions scandal.

The Munich-based economic institute said on Friday its business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7,000 companies, edged down to 115.9 from 116.0 in July. Economists surveyed by had forecast a drop to 115.5.

"Germany's remains on track for growth," chief Clemens Fuest said in a statement.

The drop was caused by companies taking a slightly less positive view of the current business situation. However, managers' business outlook for the next six months improved to its highest level since January 2014, the survey showed.

A sector breakdown of the figures showed the main drag came from retailing. Sentiment improved against the trend in manufacturing and construction.

economist Klaus Wohlrabe linked the drop in retailing to the emissions scandal and cartel allegations engulfing Germany's car industry, which is the country's biggest exporter and employs some 800,000 people.

"Car retailers are feeling the restraint of customers," Wohlrabe said, although he noted the emission scandal did not seem to have hit business morale in the automobile industry itself.

NO LIMIT

Wohlrabe said that the German appeared unaffected by global political developments, adding: "The German has not reached a growth limit. There is still room on the upside."

The index came after data that showed the continued to expand in the second quarter, growing by 0.6 percent on the quarter and by 2.1 percent on the year, driven by strong private consumption.

"The German is humming. The strong growth momentum that we saw in the first half of the year will carry into the third quarter," KfW bank chief economist Joerg Zeuner said.

Following the release of the GDP data, KfW raised its 2017 growth forecast for the German to a calendar-adjusted 2.3 percent from its previous estimate of 1.9 percent.

"With less than one month to go before Germany's federal election, today's data bode well for Angela Merkel's already-strong prospects for re-election," Capital Economics analyst Stephen Brown said.

Still, sentiment indicators published earlier this week have painted a rather mixed picture of the economic outlook.

Investor morale fell the third month in a row amid concerns that the car emissions scandal could damage the in the medium term. A survey of purchasing managers showed, however, that manufacturing and services grew faster in August.

(Reporting by Michael Nienaber, additional reporting by Joern Poltz and Joseph Nasr; Editing by Paul Carrel, Larry King)

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