The magnitude of the BJP’s victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections is yet to be completely understood even as the implications of the saffron party’s win and the defeat of the Congress continue to unfold three years after Narendra Modi’s rise to power.
Electoral Politics in India: The Resurgence of the Bharatiya Janata Party, a book released by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) at the India International Centre on Wednesday, is an in-depth analysis of the factors related to these outcomes and the road that India has travelled since.
A collection of 19 essays by political scientists, psephologists, sociologists and political commentators, the volume has been edited by Suhas Palishkar, who taught at the Savitribai Phule Pune University, and is the co-director of the Lokniti Programme, CSDS; Sanjay Kumar, professor and director of CSDS; and Sanjay Lodha, who teaches at the Department of Political Science at Mohanlal Sukhadia University in Udaipur, Rajasthan.
The discussion panel comprised Ghanshyam Shah, former Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University; Mr. Lodha; Seema Chishti, deputy editor at the Indian Express; and Mahesh Rangarajan, Dean of Academic Affairs at Ashoka University, Sonepat as the discussants.
“In many ways, this work is a continuation of books released by CSDS after the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections and, like its predecessors, analyses the 2014 elections results based on National Election Studies,” said Professor Kumar.
In Mr. Lodha's view, Electoral Politics in India: The Resurgence of the Bharatiya Janata Party focuses, simply, on what happened in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, why it happened and what were the implications.
‘What happened in 2014?’
“The 19 pieces look at what happened in the 2014 Lok Sanbha elections, why the Congress performed so badly, and what happened with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) here in Delhi,” Mr. Lodha said.
“The second part deals with those states where BJP traditionally hasn't been doing so well but got a historic mandate, the third with those states where the BJP made its presence felt but couldn't do so well and the final section deals with certain variables that contributed to the BJP victory such as media coverage among others,” he further said.
The “phenomenal victory” of the BJP, Mr. Lodha said, was the “second transformation” for it based on successfully stitching together sections of society which were not among its traditional vote base with those that were, an analysis of its pro-liberalization agenda and its utilisation of the media in what he quoted several commentators of terming as a “media-tised election.”
According to CSDS, the book also examines the changing definition of political alliances with the BJP now at the centre representing “the principal pivot” in national politics, which is “one of the major implications” of the BJP’s victory.
“There is a need to review whether (political) coalitions are no longer important with the return of the national (party) as well as analysing issues such as why the seat-vote multiplier, which worked for the BJP in northern and western India, didn't work in Orissa, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala where Chief Ministers were more powerful and the BJP didn't have a powerful local leader as well its inability at religious polarization in these four states,” he said.
However, Mr. Lodha said, the questions to be asked now revolved around “where we go from here” and whether what the BJP had accomplishes was “a long term trend.”
“The BJP has reached its peak in north, west and central parts of India. However, what needs to be seen is whether the party, which has been able to expand its base to backwards and SCs and STs, will be able to survive. What also needs to be tackled is the exclusion of non-Hindus,” he added.