Rupee set to shed gains, weaken to 65 if dollar revives: Reuters poll

Chinese yuan is forecast to weaken to 6.90 per dollar a year

Reuters  |  Bengaluru 

Rupee US dollar
Photo: Reuters

In 12 month's time the will have erased most of its gains made this year, provided the US Federal Reserve sticks to its tightening path, boosting the greenback, a Reuters showed.

Having strengthened more than 3 per cent since the start of 2017, the is forecast to weaken to 6.90 per dollar in a year, according to the of over 60 foreign exchange analysts taken July 27-Aug 2.

It was trading around 6.72 on Wednesday.

While the dollar should benefit when the Fed starts shrinking its balance sheet, which it has said it expected to do "relatively soon", it could falter again if the central bank fails to follow through with a rate hike later this year.

At the start of the year, traders had expected faster rate hikes from the Fed and some form of stimulus from the new Trump administration would drive the dollar up strongly against emerging currencies.

But, the greenback has instead taken a beating on fading hopes that President Trump will be able to push through deep tax cuts and massive infrastructure spending.

That has brightened the outlook for

Strong Chinese economic data over recent months has cooled worries over the yuan's weakening, leaving further scope for the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to tighten the country's domestic liquidity conditions.

Authorities also tightened their grip on the recently by adjusting the daily midpoint guidance formula to deter speculators betting on further falls in the That move has been reinforced by frequent dollar selling by state banks.

"China's currency had long been struggling with depreciation pressure, which is now history for the time being," wrote Stefan Grosse, economist at NORD/LB.

"The US dollar's current phase of weakness is helping the renminbi (yuan)."

Helping restore market confidence in the currency, the PBOC introduced a different methodology to calculate the mid-point reference rate for the

In its latest report, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the yuan's exchange rate is broadly consistent with underlying economic fundamentals and desirable policies.

Fitch Ratings agency echoed the IMF's view, confirming a stable outlook on the Chinese and maintaining its A+ rating, citing improvement in the country's external finances as well as macroeconomic picture.

A separate Reuters showed speculators increased their positions in favour of most

Bullish bets on the were at their highest since December late last month. Investors also turned bullish on the Indian after being sellers of the currency since April.

The Indian is now forecast to have weakened to 65.00 per dollar in a year, lower than the 63.70 it was trading around on Wednesday, having gained roughly 6 per cent so far in 2017.

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.0 per cent as expected, the lowest since November 2010, on concerns over softening The was taken before the rate decision.

The also cut the reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 per cent.

India is set to reclaim its position as the fastest growing major economy, with expected to grow an annual 7.3 per cent in the current fiscal year, benefiting from a new goods and services tax policy.

But in the near-term the impact of the new tax is expected to be negative for the and a lack of clarity among producers hurt the country's factory activity in July, which shrank at its fastest rate in more than nine years.

"Within the emerging market space, currencies with strong fundamentals could continue to gain despite stretched valuations - INR falls in this category," said Tushar Arora, senior economist at HDFC Bank.