The Janata Dal (United) won its vote of confidence in Bihar with the help of the Bharatiya Janata Party on Friday, signalling a change in the balance of power in the Rajya Sabha, almost a year before the ruling party had envisaged.
If the JD(U)’s nine MPs in the Upper House fall in line with party president and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s wishes, and switch to voting with the government, by end-August, the BJP-led NDA and its friends will achieve parity in the 245-member Upper House.
“Once the BJP-led NDA achieves parity — and it looks likely that once some of the JD(U) MPs who are unhappy with Nitish’s decision, are offered central ministerial berths,” a senior Congress MP told The Hindu, “they will agree to back the BJP. Then the government will be able to push through whatever Bills they wish to. So far, the government has had to think twice before doing so in the Rajya Sabha.”
Incremental progress
Ever since it came to power at the Centre in 2014, the BJP-led NDA has been struggling to increase its numbers in the Rajya Sabha, but with MPs retiring in batches, progress has been incremental, making it hard to push through key legislation.
Indeed, if the political change in Bihar had not taken place now, it would not have been able to achieve parity till mid-2018, when the number of government MPs will be more than those in the Opposition. That would be just one year before the general elections.
Apart from these nine seats held by the JD(U), elections are due for 10 Rajya Sabha seats that fall vacant this month and in August; the BJP that currently holds two of these seats, will increase that number to three, with the Congress-held seat in Goa moving to the BJP, in the wake of the changed composition of the Goa Assembly earlier this year. Indeed, at the end of the elections, the BJP and the Congress will both have 57 seats each in the Upper House.
(The remaining six seats that will be contested in August are from West Bengal: the Trinamool Congress, that currently holds four of those seats will go up to five, at the expense of the CPI(M), and the Congress will retain the sixth.)
In Gujarat, the BJP will retain the two seats it holds — Union Textile Minister Smriti Irani has been re-nominated, and BJP president Amit Shah will be making his entry through the second seat.
But now the BJP has fielded a third person, Balwantsinh Rajput, a Congress MLA who joined the BJP on Thursday, to take on Ahmed Patel, his former mentor, and political secretary to Congress president Sonia Gandhi, who is seeking re-election to the seat he currently holds.
Shrinking numbers
Mr. Patel needs 44 votes to win, but Congress numbers have been shrinking, with seven party MLAs crossing over to the BJP since Thursday. If this continues, Mr. Patel’s seat may be in jeopardy.
So the BJP will add one seat — and if lucky, two seats — to its RS tally next month. If the JD(U) MPs, too, decide to back it, it can add another nine seats to its side of the House.
Add to that Mr. Amit Shah, and the BJP will stand considerably enhanced in the Upper House, making the already battered Opposition’s task that much harder.