Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar met the Governor and handed him his resignation. (File)
With Nitish Kumar stepping down as chief minister, the JD(U) has effectively pulled out of the Grand Alliance in Bihar. This means the JD(U)-led government, which was propped up by the Grand Alliance’s chief constituent RJD, doesn’t have the requisite numbers to stay in power. With no party in Bihar having the political heft to stake claim to form the next government, we explore the three likely scenarios which could play out in the coming days.
Scenario 1: Fresh elections
This is highly possible if the JD(U) doesn’t take outside support from the Bharatiya Janata Party. If no alliances are stitched in the near future, then fresh elections would mean a clean start for all the parties. This means boundaries will be redrawn and the Congress will have to choose between joining the JD(U) or the RJD. After the bitter contest in 2015, RJD won (80) seats, JD(U) (71) , BJP (53), Congress (27), LJP (2) RLSP (2) HAM (1) CPI(ML) Liberation (3), Independents (4).
Scenario 2: JD(U) props up BJP government
This is far from possible, but it cannot be ruled out either. The JD(U) and the BJP has the combined strength of 124 MLAs, more than the halfway mark for the 243-member Assembly. The BJP could bargain for the chief minister post in exchange for the JD(U) staying in power. This could mean Nitish Kumar not returning for a fourth term as chief minister. A BJP chief minister and a JD(U) deputy chief minister is plausible.
Scenario 3: BJP supports JD(U)
Within minutes after he stepped down, Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Nitish Kumar for taking a stand against corruption. Was this a subtle signal from PM Modi welcoming Nitish back to the BJP fold? The Bihar issue is likely to figure in the BJP parliamentary board meeting today at 7 pm in New Delhi. A decision could be taken whether to support JD(U) from the outside or form a coalition government. This would mean the Congress will stay out of this coalition due to its ideological difference with the BJP.
Scenario 4: Mahagathbandan continues
This is the fourth, slightly unlikely, scenario. This would mean the JD(U)-RJD alliance continues, maybe with a new chief minister and deputy. However, with what Nitish has said after his resignation, this does seem a bit far fetched at the moment.
