The Opposition has no alternative to what the government is doing. Does it have a job creation strategy? Can it stop the terrorism in Kashmir? Can it offer a solution to the India-China problem? Is it not India’s problem that whichever party is in power, the policy is the same? Only the personnel change.
Can the Opposition do any better? It faces a formidable government with a large majority, an energetic leader who is a master at communication and is in constant active mode. The Opposition spent the first year in total denial that this could be happening. Then there were small consolations — election defeat in Delhi and Bihar for the BJP — which deepened the denial. But by the third year, things have settled down. Except for Punjab, where the BJP was a second party in the governing coalition anyway, the Opposition had no gains to report. The loss of Uttar Pradesh was massive.
In the two elections for the president and vice-president, the Opposition did not cover itself with glory. Its choice of Meira Kumar was reactive rather than bold. Its choice of Gopal Gandhi was non-political. Modi played one-two shuffle and fooled the Opposition on both choices.
Anyway, in the Indian system, governments win these elections. The best the Opposition can do is not lose too badly. It has been thus since Indira Gandhi sprung V V Giri in defiance of the Congress choice of Sanjiva Reddy in 1969. The rest is history. The only time a disparate collection of opposition parties has beaten an incumbent government has been in 1977 after the end of the Emergency. The next time a coalition of opposition parties won was in 2004 when the UPA defeated the BJP/ NDA. In 1989, Rajiv Gandhi lost his majority but was the head of the single largest party. He chose not to form a coalition. In no other case till 2014 has a ruling party/coalition lost to an Opposition coalition.
The problem today is that none of the parties in the Opposition has enough numbers to command authority. The Congress leads but more due to inertia than any real strength in the grassroots. Its performance in UP has failed to shake its complacency. The other parties are even smaller and none aspires to leadership except perhaps Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal. But except for the Congress and, in technical sense the CPM, there are no national parties. The Congress does not rule in many states — Punjab and Karnataka are the only large states in its bag. The regional parties are single-state parties. The Congress is happy to tag along the big regional parties as the third or fourth partner.
It needs the other parties not vice-versa. Come 2019, there would have to be a serious approach to fighting the BJP/NDA. Unless the Congress can deliver 180 seats, the coalition stands no chance. But to get ahead, the Opposition needs its own narrative. So far, it has been reactive. On inflation it agitates when it is high, forgetting its own record and offering no alternative. Ditto on farmers’ suicide and debt forgiveness. The Opposition has no alternative to what the government is doing. Does it have a job creation strategy? Can it stop the terrorism in Kashmir? Can it offer a solution to the India-China problem? Is it not India’s problem that whichever party is in power, the policy is the same? Only the personnel change.
Crying wolf about communalism and vigilantism will not be enough to attract votes. Modi offered hope and thus far has not disappointed. The Congress has so far been negative. It has to offer hope.
