On form, Roger Federer has a distinct edge over Marin Cilic in Sunday’s Wimbledon men’s singles final, but it would be unwise to write off the Croatian, who is no pushover.
While Federer leads their head-to-head by a comfortable 6-1, it is prudent to remember that he barely managed to keep his nose ahead when they last met. This was in Wimbledon last year, when Federer came back after being two sets down, winning one of the last three sets in the tightest of tiebreakers.
The match that preceded this one, at the US Open in 2014, is worth considering as well, when a brutal Cilic, playing with a blithe and untroubled power, crushed him in three straight sets en route to picking up his only Grand Slam title.
This would suggest that it is going to be anything but easy for Federer. But parse the statistics over the calendar year 2017, and particularly for this tournament, the picture alters somewhat.
Impeccable year
In an almost impeccable year, Federer has lost just two matches (at Dubai and Stuttgart), winning as many as 24 matches and four ATP tournaments, including the Australian Open. Cilic has lost 13 times in 2017, winning only one tournament (on clay in Istanbul).
At Wimbledon, Federer, who hasn’t dropped a set yet, has looked the far better player.
His service, a massively underestimated weapon perhaps because it is delivered with finesse and guise instead of a typical thundering slap, has been broken only four times.
Cilic has had more difficult matches, the last two being the marathon five-setter against Gilles Muller and the tight four-setter in the semifinal against Sam Querrey.
The Croatian has lost 10 of his service games on the way to the final.
Despite his huge serve, the stats show that has hardly any difference in terms of effectiveness when it comes to the first.
Federer has won 83% of the points on his first serve so far at Wimbledon against Cilic’s 84.
The gap widens significantly when it comes to the second serve, which has been a significant feature of Federer’s game this year.
The Swiss has won as many as 66% of his second serve points (this is one of the highest for the tournament) against Cilic’s 58%.
During the semifinal against Tomas Berdych, Federer was able to summon his serve almost every time he was down to pull even and ward off break points.
During the tournament, he has saved a striking 16 out of 20 break points as against 14 out of 24 for Cilic.
If there is an upset, it will be down to Cilic being in the zone — a place he is known to occupy on occasion.
Anything less may not be good enough to defeat an extraordinary man who, at 35 years, is a heartbeat away from overhauling Pete Sampras’ and William Renshaw’s haul of seven Wimbledon singles titles and pocketing his 19th Grand Slam.