The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is working on a forecasting system to give 15-day warnings on the likelihood of a malaria or chikungunya outbreak, over different regions.
IMD Director-General K.J. Ramesh said such a service was part of a larger initiative by the department to provide custom, weather-related information to cope with challenges of a global warming and its associated impact of weather. Extreme rainfall events were on the rise, said Mr. Ramesh and this could also mean more instances of humid conditions and waterlogging that could precipitate vector-borne disease outbreaks.
“We have teamed up with the Medical Council of India and the Red Cross Society,” Mr. Ramesh told The Hindu, “and are customising our dynamical model (that simulates weather and forecasts, using supercomputers) for generating this information.”
Increased variation
Speaking on the sidelines of a function marking World Environment Day, Mr. Ramesh said average Indian temperatures had risen 0.86 C since 1901. But the average annual rainfall (about 120 cm) hadn’t changed much.
This rain was now being distributed over fewer days. “Also places that were once relatively drier are wetter and more humid [engendering conditions for water-logging and mosquito breeding] and our attempt is to give advance warnings to better prepare for outbreaks,” he added.
The IMD’s National Climate Centre in Pune, traditionally tasked with forecasting the monsoon and documenting monsoon-related statistics, was being reorganised to provide such climate services. “These include five-day and 15-day forecasts of heat-waves, cold waves and, going ahead, disease outbreaks,” he added.