Driven by the explosive growth in smartphone usage and a dramatic fall in data charges, the online education industry in India is set for an eight-fold increase. By 2021, the industry will be $1.96 billion strong, a transformation powered by tier 2 and 3 cities besides the six metros.

Google and KPMG on Tuesday jointly released these findings from their report 'Online Education in India: 2021.' The report also indicated that the paid user base will see a six-fold increase from 1.6 million users in 2016 to 9.6 million users in 2021.

Over the past two years, online searches for education saw a two-fold growth. Google searches from mobile devices were three times higher than two years ago. But the most visible four-fold growth was seen in the consumption of YouTube videos linked to education over the past one year.

So, why do learners get online? Working professionals currently dominate the space. Reskilling and online certifications are the largest category today at $93 million. But by 2021, private tuitions will occupy the top slot. The report shows that in five years, primary and secondary supplemental education will grow at 60% annually to become a $773-million industry by itself.

Test preparation (for various competitive examinations) will be the fastest growing category in 2021. The cumulative annual growth rate will be a high 64%.

How will online education look in the near future? The report points to 'gamification' concepts to enhance engagement between teachers and learners. So scientific and mathematical concepts will be explained through simulations, and just as in games, students will get incentives and level advancement badges and the like.

There will be greater collaboration between online and offline. Online players will establish offline touch-points for students. Besides, big data and artificial intelligence will assist in design of content customised for different category of students. Wearable devices and virtual labs will also be part of the future, the study said.

The shift to online is decisive. As Google India's industry director Nitin Bawankule put it, “Online content is 30 to 40% cheaper than offline. It is more convenient and accessible. Sixty per cent of the content is consumed through smartphones and tablets.”

The report was based on a primary qualitative and quantitative research that covered over 3,600 respondents across 27 geographies. These included both metro and non-metro cities. The respondents were in the age group of 16-45 years, both male and female, who were online/offline course takers. Parents were also part of the survey.

Online edu industry set to touch $1.96-bn