As has been forecast, an upper air cyclonic circulation had formed over the South-East Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean (south-west of Andaman & Nicobar Islands) by noon today.
With this, conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon to enter more areas of the Bay during the next two to three days, an India Met Department (IMD) update said.
ARABIAN SEA CHURN
On the other side of the peninsula, a similar circulation has formed over the South-West and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea, far away from Kerala on the country's south-west coast.
IMD projections indicate that the Bay system may gradually grow in strength, though it did not say so in as many words in its afternoon bulletin.
The peer system in the Arabian Sea may convert itself into an elongated trough with south-westerly flows along the flanks.
This would aid the break-up of the stubborn high-pressure area (anti-cyclone) over the larger Arabian Sea that has prevented south-westerly monsoon flows taking hold.
In fact, the flows being freed up in this manner may go to set up a helpful circulation off Kerala and boost the monsoon prospects.
CLASSICAL SETTINGS
Meanwhile, the circulation in the Bay would have gained strength and become a depression, or even a tropical cyclone, if projections by IMD and a few models are anything to go by.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says the monsoon would be established to classical settings by May 30, the date proposed by the IMD for the onset over Kerala.
But it did not see any major sea-based system (as in a depression/ cyclone) developing in either of the peninsular seas, which can sometimes drive the flows along with them away from the coasts.
A US-based weather tracker continues to maintain a watch for such systems developing in both, helping the monsoon with its onward journey initially.
It also pointed to the possibility of an Arabian Sea system (mentioned earlier) tracking along India's West Coast but veering off Konkan towards the North Arabian Sea (aiming for the Karachi coast).