Disequilibrium: INDIA’S kill zones

In a curious twist after the 1999 Lok Sabha hustings, India Shining pulled the plug on Atal Bihari Vajpayee's NDA conglomeration. Almost overnight, TINAA (There Is No Alternative to Atal) became SITA (Sonia Is the Only Alternative). For a decade, SITA remained firmly in the saddle till the abrupt rise of Narendra Modi. Since May 2014, it has all been about NITA (Narendra is the Only Alternative). Barring the odd reverse in Delhi and then Bihar, the NITA phenomenon has been unprecedented in a fractured polity like India. In 20 years, we have gone from TINA to NITA with a longish spell of SITA in between. Three years after a series of decisive wins and a virtual banishment of the Congress led Opposition, Modi has emerged as a larger than life politico, striding across the spectrum like a Colossus. Even as he tries to deliver on his growth and development promises over the final two years of his first term, after taking a Left Turn on economic policies mid way, key challenges to the democratic process and rule of law have become apparent and they are distinctly worrisome.

As democracy retreats deeper and deeper into its rabbit warren in Kashmir Valley and maoist infested jungles of Sukma-Jagdalpur, the question that begs an answer is whether elected governments have the political will to future proof these areas? The rules of engagement have changed, wrecking ball crews are inflicting heavy damage to our forces and their morale. The Choice Theory of Planning is defined as a process for determining appropriate future action. While this may be one of the boiler plates of planning, it can be used to fight guerrillas, home grown militants and insurgents as well, for at the very kernel of execution is planning. The choices which thus constitute the planning process are made at three levels: first, the selection of ends and criteria; second, the identification of a set of alternatives consistent with these general prescriptives, and the selection of a desired alternative; and third, guidance of action toward determined ends. Values are inescapable elements of any rational decision-making process, or any exercise of choice. Since choice permeates the whole planning sequence, a clear notion of the ways in which choices are made, and of the ends pursued, must lie at the heart of the planner's task. Explication of all such determinations reduces arbitrariness.

The theory presented is a general one, applying to all fields, and is not restricted to planning in an urban context. Unfortunately, India is doing more of the same and not recalibrating its plans for either Kashmir Valley or the Naxal hotbed. In both cases crocodiles are waiting at the watering holes. Again in both cases, democratic institutions and development are being targeted - schools and Entrepreneurial Development Institute in Pampore, judicial officers et al in Kashmir Valley and road building or putting up telecom towers in maoist ruled jungles. On Thursday, in what has now become a signature style of the buddy paired fidayeen (this time it is believed there were 3) yet another Army camp was attacked. Target was an army camp in Kupwara district of north Kashmir, killing three personnel, including a captain, and leaving five soldiers injured. Two suspected Jaish-e-Mohammed militants were killed in the retaliatory action. A defence spokesman said that the militants attacked the army camp at Panzgam in Kupwara, 100 kms from Srinagar at 4 AM. Now this is one of a long line of module executed choreographed attacks on military installations always at a time when the shift changes and vigil is at its weakest and poorest. Look at the latest Sukma incident, CRPF's 74th battalion providing security cover for a building party was bushwhacked by the dreaded Hidima, mastermind of several such brutal attacks including the May 2013 ambush of the entire Congress leadership in the state.

Hidima is Commander of the dreaded People Liberation Guerrilla Army PLGA, which is the elite maoist unit, it saw over 150 of them descend on the para military forces and kill them almost at will. Blocking building of roads, telecom towers or other infrastructure is now commonplace in the remote Sukma region. Since 2005, 1885 security personnel have been killed in the red corridor and in the Sukma-Jagdalpur area alone. Maoist guerrillas and Kashmir's self styled freedom fighters in conjunction with state sponsored proxies from Pakistan are systematically looking to emasculate anything that is remotely democratic or symbolises development and is emblematic of progress. The acting CRPF chief has said that Maoists used villagers as shields, jawans couldn't tell the difference. The reality is that our CRPF jawans are uninitiated in the art of guerrilla warfare, they don't have the combat experience for this level of intricate planning and the death toll keeps mounting in the killing fields. The Maoists attacked the jawans from three sides around noon, using villagers as shields. Further they decamped with at least 12 AK 47s, five Under Barrel grenade launchers, six other assault rifles, two light machine guns, five wireless sets, two binoculars, 22 bullet proof jackets, metal detector and 2800 rounds of ammo as part of 59 AK magazines. Reportage from ground zero suggests a U-shaped ambush by at least 150 maoists, of an intelligence failure, of possible genital mutilation, of human shields.

Officers say that at 6 am on Monday, 76 jawans left the CRPF’s Burkapal camp to secure the road and under-construction bridge on the crucial link between Dornapal on NH 30 and Jagargunda, a length of 56 km. The stretch is divided between the Burkapal camp and the one in Chintalnar, about 5 km away. Hidima is reportedly the master of the kill zone and he chooses his location very carefully, knowing fully well that he is taking on a demotivated force with low morale, poor compensation, poorer training and feeding on inaccurate intel. This entire brutalised psyche has to be reversed.

Some of this anecdotal evidence flies in the face of the impression that our jawans were under armed, rather they were unfortunately tactically outfought. The new attack comes immediately after the March 11 attack, where 12 CRPF personnel were killed. Hidima is suspected of leading and planning that attack as well. A counter insurgency and jungle warfare college – CTJWC - has been operational in Kanker for over 10 years now. With the motto “Take on the guerrilla, like a guerrilla”, CTJWC trains policemen in jungle warfare and guerrilla tactics. “The first bullet can be that of the enemy, but you have to return the fire in half-a- second,” sounds good, but one cannot change a regular policeman into a deadly commando within 45 days. Nearly 15,000 policemen have been trained in counter-terrorism and jungle warfare tactics by the school. Sadly as one has witnessed over time, the heightened level of strategic and tactical warfare tools that the maoists use, seem to be wrong footing our troops. The troopers lack motivation, skill sets or the training thresholds to take on the committed armed mobs. After reading about the cache of weaponry stolen by the maoists, it is clear that our jawans were armed to the teeth as well. Despite that, they lack heart to take on the maoists. Which is a shame, for India cannot use the Army to take on the maoists. Crisis in Kashmir, call the Army, floods and relief, call the Army, catastrophe in Uttarkhand, call the Army and Air Force; this has been the practice. One is not questioning the valour of the CRPF jawans, but their jungle warfare training is obviously not up to scratch and intel is off-putting and repellant. And if one does a quick check between the political class and its reactions after Dantewada 2010 and Sukma 2017, nothing has changed.

The strong visual reference to combat fatigues and their systematic targeting in these areas is proving to be the single biggest problem. It doesn't end with Kashmir Valley or the jungles of Sukma, but extends to the wilds of the north east, where there have been at least two known instances of similar targeting. In June 2015, a Six Dogra Regiment military convoy was waylaid by armed Naga militia using RPGs in the Chandel district of Manipur, killing 20 soldiers. India had to resort to a surgical strike in the Myanmar jungles as a retaliatory measure. Is democracy then in strife and peril? Maybe not in India as a whole but definitely in these pockets, where kerfuffle is the order of the day. Are democratic forces losing out to left wing extremism and jihadists. Govt data shows that there is 42 per cent reduction in resultant deaths (security force personnel and civilians) in 2015 as compared to 2013 and 22% reduction in resultant deaths (security force personnel and civilians) in 2014 as compared to 2013.The number of Left Wing cadres neutralised in 2016 has increased to 190 as compared to 64 in 2015. The number of LWE cadres surrendered has also increased from 282 in 2013 to 1399 in 2016. The multi-pronged efforts adopted by the government have resulted in decline of LWE violence. What this cold data doesn't throw into stark relief is that spectacular hits have only increased. These attacks, where the toll is much higher than normal battles with security forces, keep the pot boiling and the primacy of the fear psychosis factor over the local populace.

Kashmir, Maoist infested jungles of Chattisgarh and the North East require a spanking new paradigm, a mix of development and rewritten security protocols which can tame these militants and insurgents. The old book with one size fits all has to be thrown into whatever little water the Yamuna has. With the Army stretched thin in Kashmir and the north east, coping with the two theatre doctrine of dealing with Pakistan and China simultaneously, India's military and security mavens have to create a new template in the war against guerrillas in the Red Corrdior. We must go beyond the Cobra battalions of CRPF and think of a Rashtriya Rifles type of Victor, Alpha Romeo force, which is trained to deal with jungle warfare. This needs to be done on a war footing just as the vigil levels need to be upped in Kashmir where repeated transgressions in military camps are proving embarrassing. Fatigue is obviously the greatest bugbear, which needs to be fought and won daily. It is incumbent on the deep state to evolve a new war doctrine to combat guerrillas and insurgents for we are expending too many good soldiers and jawans. Jawans aren't perishable commodities who can be thrown into battle like old fashioned cannon fodder. The evolution of a new guerrilla fighting stratagem is crucial for the waiting crocodile at the watering hole.

@sandeep_bamzai