While announcing a forecast of 96 per cent achievement of the Long Term Average (LPA), which means "normal", the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday feared occurrence of El Nino in August. This means, the rainfall will remain below normal in the August-September period, the crucial stage of germination and crop development.
"Five to ten per cent of diversion in favour of short-duration crops is possible this season, as farmers might be looking to mitigate the risk of crop damage in the later part of the monsoon season. However, those with limited alternatives will continue with normal season crops. Most importantly, the progress of rainfall would determine the fate of kharif crops this season," said M K Dhanuka, Managing Director, Dhanuka Agritech Ltd.
Further updates from IMD on monsoon would be crucial. "The report on distribution of rain, expected in May, would also be critical for the crop growing areas of north-west, central and south India," said a Religare report.
Deepak Chitroda, Mumbai based Consultant covering fertilisers market for India and other South Asian countries at CRU Analysis, a London-based research and consulting company, said that, "A normal monsoon will surely benefit agri companies to form sales strategies in the regional markets, especially south, where monsoon remained deficient. Fertiliser companies will benefit with drawn down of higher inventories of DAP and other complex fertilizer, which are presently estimated close 4-4.5 million tonnes compared to normal level of about 2.5-3 million tonnes. However, a clear picture will only emerge after seen IMD's June update, development on El Nino and distribution of rainfall across the regions/states, which will determine crop sowing, production and demand for agricultural inputs".