The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement on Tuesday that the country would receive "normal" monsoon, with a fair distribution of rainfall across major parts of country.
Monsoon 2017 will be qualitatively 96 percent of long-period average (LPA), with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent, IMD said.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General K J Ramesh said there would be good distribution of rainfall across the country. "The country will receive 96 per cent of Long Period Average," he said.
Although, Indian agriculture is gradually getting delinked from monsoon and the impact of a failed monsoon is not as severe as it has been in the past, but nonetheless the June to September rains are vital for farming as less than half of the total arable land in the country is under irrigation.
Monsoon 2017 will be qualitatively 96 percent of long-period average (LPA), with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent, IMD said.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General K J Ramesh said there would be good distribution of rainfall across the country. "The country will receive 96 per cent of Long Period Average," he said.
Although, Indian agriculture is gradually getting delinked from monsoon and the impact of a failed monsoon is not as severe as it has been in the past, but nonetheless the June to September rains are vital for farming as less than half of the total arable land in the country is under irrigation.
Here are top highlights:
* IMD says India's 2017 southwest Monsoon is likely to be normal, 96 per cent of long period average (LPA)
* Distribution and spatial breakup of rains to be normal: IMD
* Weak EL Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole combining to give a positive monsoon for India in 2017: IMD
* IMD says weak EL Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole combining to give a positive monsoon for India in 2017
* IMD predicts 96% of monsoon rainfall for the year 2017. 38% chances of near normal monsoon. Good distribution of rain likely
* IMD says forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent
* IMD says chances of El Nino developing has gone down from over 50 per cent to around 30 per cent in last few months
IMD will issue the update forecasts in early June, 2017as a part of the second stage long range forecast of monsoon rainfall. Along with the update forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over various geographical regions of India will also be issued. By that time, more
information on the evolution of El Nino and IOD will be available.
The June to September monsoon months provide more than 70 per cent of the total annual precipitation that India gets.
The June to September monsoon months provide more than 70 per cent of the total annual precipitation that India gets.
El Nino is characterized by gradual warming of the sea surface temperature along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It has an over-bearing impact on Indian rains and 80 per cent of El Nino years has seen below-normal rains in the country, while 60 per cent have been outright drought years.
Anything between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered as "normal". Anything under 96 per cent is considered as "below normal" and 104-110 per cent of the LPA as "above normal".
Last year the IMD had predicted the rains to be above normal that is more than 106 per cent of the LPA, in its first forecast, while the actual rains turned out to around 97 per cent of the LPA as La Nina remained at neutral state.The forecast was with model error of plus and minus 5 per cent.
LPA is average seasonal rainfall over the country in the last 50 years starting from 1951 and it is estimated to be 89 centimeters.
A normal monsoon means steady rains, ample irrigation water availability and a good crop to our farmers.
— Dr. Harsh Vardhan (@drharshvardhan) April 18, 2017
In all, a good year for everyone.
Monsoon is considered normal if rain during the June to September season is 96-104 per cent of the LPA. Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered as a deficient. Rainfall between 96-104 per cent of LPA is normal and that between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA is 'above normal'. Rainfall above 110 per cent of the average would mean an excessive monsoon. IMD issues its first forecast in the month of April which is subsequently updated in June.
The June to September monsoon months provide more than 70 per cent of the total annual precipitation that India gets.
El Nino is characterized by gradual warming of the sea surface temperature along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It has an over-bearing impact on Indian rains and 80 per cent of El Nino years has seen below-normal rains in the country, while 60 per cent have been outright drought years.
The June to September monsoon months provide more than 70 per cent of the total annual precipitation that India gets.
El Nino is characterized by gradual warming of the sea surface temperature along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It has an over-bearing impact on Indian rains and 80 per cent of El Nino years has seen below-normal rains in the country, while 60 per cent have been outright drought years.