RK Nagar bypoll to decide who's the rightful political successor of Jayalalithaa. Here's why

By Sandhya Ravishankar

Unmindful of the searing heat of Chennai summer, candidates travel in autorickshaws strapped with blaring loudspeakers and set up tiny stages in the kurukku sandhus (narrow lanes) of the congested Dr Radhakrishnan Nagar (RK Nagar) constituency in North Chennai. The fiercely fought battle is not just for the 2.62 lakh electorate — mostly poor and middle-class voters in a cosmopolitan constituency — but also for an answer to a political question that has been roiling Tamil Nadu since the death of J Jayalalithaa last December: who is the rightful political heir of the former chief minister?

This was, after all, her constituency. She fought and won from here after she was acquitted in a disproportionate assets case in 2015, and again in the assembly poll of 2016. That is why the RK Nagar by-poll, scheduled for April 12, is being keenly contested and watched, despite its result having no effect on the stability of the government.

Desperate Dhinakaran
Family and politics are tied up in this poll. If Jayalalithaa's niece J Deepa has thrown her hat into the ring as an independent candidate, banking on familial ties and an uncanny resemblance to her aunt, TTV Dhinakaran is VK Sasikala's nephew. He was anointed as deputy general secretary of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) by his aunt hours before she surrendered at the Parappana Agraharam Central Jail in Bengaluru.

She was convicted by the Supreme Court in the disproportionate assets case and sentenced to four years' imprisonment. As Sasikala drove out of Chennai to Bengaluru jail, Dhinakaran made his return to the very heart of state politics after being left out in the cold for six long years.

In 2011, Jayalalithaa threw out her confidante Sasikala and her relatives from the Poes Garden residence as well as the party. Sasikala was allowed back into Jaya's home but the relatives were firmly shut out. Dhinakaran is now the de facto boss of the AIADMK. When the party split vertically post Amma, into Sasikala's faction and O Panneerselvam's (OPS) group, the numbers weighed in favour of Sasikala who managed to get the majority of legislators on her side. But the sentiments of the people and the cadre seemed stacked against her, as she was considered a usurper of Jaya's legacy, a power grabber in a hurry.

It is this perception that Sasikala and Dhinakaran want to disprove with a win for the latter in RK Nagar. Throughout this campaign, Dhinakaran has said: "This is Amma's constituency. We will follow her path. I will complete her work. I appeal to voters of RK Nagar constituency to vote for us and help us get back the two leaves symbol."

The Election Commission (EC) has frozen the AIADMK's two leaves symbol and has not allowed Dhinakaran or OPS faction's E Madhusudhanan to use the AIADMK's name or symbol in this by-poll. Dhinakaranis fighting under the party name AIADMK (Amma) with a hat as the symbol, and Madhusudhanan under the AIADMK (Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) with an electric pole as the symbol.

"This is a very important election despite the fact that it will not dislodge the government," says political analyst Aazhi Senthilnathan. The government under Sasikala's chosen, Edappadi Palanisamy (EPS), is secure with a simple majority of 122 MLAs in a 234-member House, not counting RK Nagar.

"It is an important election for every party. If Dhinakaran loses, it will be a big blow for the Sasikala camp. It will directly affect her position in the party. In that situation, OPS and EPS factions could come together. Dhinakaran has taken a very big risk by contesting this election," he adds.

OPS or Not
Equally desperate is the Panneerselvam camp, the rival claimant to Jayalalithaa's legacy. "The voters of RK Nagar must throw away traitorous Sasikala and her family and vote for Annan (elder brother) Madhusudhanan and help the real AIADMK retrieve the two leaves symbol," scream loudspeakers attached to jeeps ferrying Madhusudhanan and a host of AIADMK old-timers and MPs who have thrown in their lot with this camp. Madhusudhanan, 75, is a former MLA of RK Nagar and a familiar face in the constituency.

For the OPS team, his winning the by-poll or at least garnering more votes than Dhinakaran is crucial, to prove to the people that they are the legatee. "If the OPS camp manages to get a good chunk of votes, they can salvage the situation to some extent," says Senthilnathan.

Can DMK Rise?
As the two factions of the AIADMK fight in what has been the party stronghold, rival Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has fielded a first-time candidate, Maruthu Ganesh, who was a journalist with the Tamil daily Dinakaran.

"We will win because of the split in the AIADMK and a lack of leadership in the party," claims TKS Elangovan, Rajya Sabha MP and DMK spokesperson. "In the past, RK Nagar voted only for MGR, Jayalalithaa and two leaves. All three are not present in this election."

A failure would not dent Ganesh's political career, but analysts say a loss would tell on Stalin's leadership, who is leading the campaign in the absence of his ailing father and DMK leader M Karunanidhi.

"It will be a big setback for Stalin if the DMK loses this by-poll. It will call his leadership into question," says Senthilnathan. Which is why the RK Nagar by-poll isn't quite like any other: it can possibly resolve the question of Jayalalithaa's heir as well as settle the query on how good Karunanidhi's successor is.

The writer is a Chennai-based freelance journalist with The Lede