Diplomatic Enclave: Firming up Indo-Bangla ties

Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s current visit to India takes place at a time when the bilateral relations between the countries are at the best they have been for many years. There are expectations of a significant boost in the ties with the 20 agreements to be signed during the visit.

Areas of cooperation include two agreements on defence cooperation, ICT, science and technology, cyber security, shipping, rail and bus services, development partnership projects and a long-term agreement for supply of high-speed diesel for northern Bangladesh. An inter-governmental agreement on civil nuclear energy, solar energy, building power transmission lines, and an agreement to open additional local markets in the border region will add to the basket of agreements. Bangladesh has agreed to participate in ISRO’s South Asian satellite that prime minister Narendra Modi had offered during his visit to Dhaka in 2015. Both sides report tangible progress in the areas of security, border management, power, energy, people to people contact and connectivity in the past couple of years.

For the two neighbours with a 4096 km long boundary, better linkages across the border is of prime importance. Power transmission lines, better road and rail links across the border to the northeastern states, upgrading customs posts on the border and enhancing trade through border haats would bind the ties closer. A generous loan on highly concessional interest rates has been lined up; reports in the Bangladeshi media suggest a sum of $5 billion. This is the third loan for Bangladesh in less than a decade, in addition to two earlier lines of credit. It is the largest credit line that India has offered to any country, even more than what New Delhi offered to war-torn Afghanistan.

A major part of it is expected to go into the Bangladesh energy sector, including a power transmission line to facilitate the transfer of electric power from Indian states to Bangladesh and setting up solar power plants. India began commercial sale and transmission of power to power-deficit Bangladesh in March last year.

Bangladesh’s economy has been on a steady growth path of 7.1 per cent. The high GDP growth has attracted attention to its economy, and countries that questioned the legitimacy of its last election have drawn closer to Dhaka. The US and several European countries had disapproved of the January 2014 elections when the ruling Awami League party swept the polls following the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) decision to boycott the elections. But, as Awami League government consolidated itself, and Sheikh Hasina has steered her government towards stability and development, Dhaka’s relations with the US and Europe have improved over the past couple of years. Trade ties and cooperation have increased.

China has also increased its influence in Bangladesh; Chinese President Xi Jinping offered a package of $24 billion during his visit to Dhaka last. China has been a major defence supplier to Bangladesh and supplied two submarines to the Bangladesh navy last year. India would want to keep Dhaka out of Beijing’s orbit; it cannot match Beijing’s resources but hopes to make up for it by cooperating in projects that are of direct interest to the government and people of Bangladesh.

In the past half decade, both sides have made efforts to build on the bilateral ties. The long pending boundary disputes are a thing of the past. The land boundary issue was finally implemented with the transfer of enclaves last year; the maritime boundary issue was resolved earlier. Cooperation in a variety of areas has increased. Bangladesh has allowed river and road transit for different kinds of cargo to Tripura and both sides are working to improve road and rail connections. Regular border haats have brought economic activity to less accessible areas on both sides of the border. Bangladesh has taken action against the Indian insurgent groups that had set up base in the country. There is effective cooperation and sharing of intelligence against terrorist organisations.

While Bangladesh has taken several steps for addressing Indian concerns, Sheikh Hasina is under pressure to show visible gains from the growing cooperation with India. The BNP has expressed misgivings over a proposed defence agreement and has charged Sheikh Hasina of giving in to India.

The sharing of Teesta river waters is a pending issue that raises emotions in Bangladesh, but progress on an agreement is hampered by West Bengal chief minister Mamata Bannerjee’s view that it would affect farmers in West Bengal.

India-Bangladesh trade has gone up to $6.5 billion, but Bangladesh has a large trade deficit, which causes concern in Dhaka. Bangladeshi businessmen claim that non-tariff barriers and countervailing duties impede exports to India.

India-Bangladesh ties have come out of a long period of stagnation and there are now signs that the partnership could become a showcase for cooperation in the region.