Crude oil price is showing some sign of relief over the past few weeks after tumbling last month.
The crude oil futures contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell from around $53 per barrel to record a low of $47 on March 14. After consolidating between $47 and $49.5 for a couple of weeks, the oil futures contract broke the psychological $50 per barrel mark last week. It is currently trading around $50.5
On the domestic front, the crude oil futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has risen sharply after making a low of ₹3,076 per barrel last month. It is currently trading around ₹3,275 per barrel.
OutlookInability to break below $47 per barrel and a strong bounce thereafter is a positive for the NYMEX crude oil contract. Technically, this upward reversal has happened from a key trendline as well as the 100-week moving average support, both poised around $46.
A rise to $51.60 and $51.85 is possible in the near term while the contract stays above $50.
A strong break above $51.85 will see the rally extending to $54 or even $55-a crucial resistance for the contract. A strong break and decisive weekly close above $55 is needed for the contract to gain fresh momentum and target $57 or $57.5 levels thereafter.
On the domestic front, the MCX crude oil contract has reversed higher from its key ₹3,100-₹3,080 support zone.
Immediate support is at ₹3,200. As long as it trades above this support, a rise to ₹3,450 and ₹3,500 is likely in the coming days. Further break above ₹3,500 can take the contract higher to ₹3,700 and ₹3,750.
But a reversal from ₹3,500 may trigger a pull-back move to ₹3,250 or ₹3,200 and keep it range bound between ₹3,200 and ₹3,500 for some time.
Note: The recommendations are based on technical analysis and there is a risk of loss in trading.