• Jimeet Modi

    CEO, Samco Securities
    The founder of SAMCO Securities and the Indian Trading League Company, Modi believes that price is the most important factor in investing. He is credited with developing the AIRM (TM), an approach to screening stocks and businesses in a scientific manner. His role model is Warren Buffett.

Domestic stock market climbs a wall of worry; what to do now

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The domestic stock market opened the week on Wall Street worries but climbed back slowly on positive sentiments reflected through the blockbuster listing of the D-Mart IPO.

The Nifty50’s reaction on the US jitters is not a good sign for the Indian market. The market’s relentless upward move has left 12 stocks in the F&O ban list, which is on the higher side, while the first-day listing premium of IPOs and indicators of bullish sentiment are pointing towards high bullish sentiment, which is why any negative event from global markets lead to a gap-down opening in India.

The ability of the Trump administration to pass key legislations would be the key to the US market’s future and investors should keep an eye on such developments.

Events of the week
The famous quote of Abraham Lincoln, the most respected President of the Century, goes like this: “Government of the people, by the people and for the people shall not perish from the earth.” It holds true for the present government in India as new policies will henceforth allow profits to the government from projects handed over to private companies.

The abnormal profits that will be generated will flow to the government, a policy rarely followed in India. In addition, pre-NELP contracts will be renewed by the government provided 10 per cent additional profits are transferred to the government coffers. This government seems to work for the people as well.

Technical Outlook
The market is entering the profit-taking zone. Indicators have signalled overbought condition at these levels. Prices, therefore, can cool down or see sideways movement. The Nifty50 may come to fill the gap and touch the 9,000 level before making any decisive move upward. Traders should buy on dips. All long positional trades must have a strict stop loss at 8,850 level on the Nifty.


Expectations for the week
The global stock market movement will guide the direction of the domestic market in the short term. The passing of affordable healthcare legislation will test the strength of US President Donald Trump and hence the mood of the market hinges on this event.

Australia’s most respected weather forecast department has predicted El Nino condition this year, which could potentially derail the rural recovery theme, although it is still early to worry about this.

The year-ending compulsions would keep the market rangebound subject to the response of the US market to the affordable healthcare bill. The market is likely to remain sideways with a firm upward bias. Investors should remain invested and traders should buy on the decline with strict stop loss. The Nifty50 closed 0.57 per cent down for the week at 9,108.
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September 30, 2016