Six out of eight international models surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) suggest the El Nino phenomenon may materialise in the Pacific from July this year.

This will have crucial implications for India, since it coincides with one of the two rainiest months in the June-September season.

The El Nino has been mostly associated with dryness and drought-like conditions in India, though with notable exceptions.

But the Australian Bureau advised that some caution may be taken, since models have lower accuracy when forecasting the possibility during this time of the year.

The Bureau's El Nino-La Nina outlook has been put on the 'El Nino watch' after being upgraded earlier from a 'neutral' mode. The timing of its next upgrade to 'El Nino alert' will be keenly watched.

Model outlooks and recent warming in the East Equatorial Pacific mean that there is an increased chance of El Nino forming later this year.

The Bureau had earlier assessed that the likelihood of this happening this year is around double the average chance at 50 per cent.