The impact of the massive victory in Uttar Pradesh will go far and beyond as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is now in a comfort zone to ensure victory for the person of its choice in the presidential elections due later this year.
The total dominance of the BJP in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh assembly, the largest in the country, has strengthened the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s electoral college.
An electoral college comprising members of Parliament and state assemblies elects the president and vice president indirectly. The elected representatives have a weightage proportionate to the population of the state. Each Uttar Pradesh MLA has the highest value of 208.
After the win in Uttar Pradesh, the NDA’s representation in the electoral college has improved but it is still short of a majority. The impressive results in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, has boosted the NDA’s vote which now falls only around 24,000 short of the majority mark. The total strength of the electoral college is 10,98,882. The gap was as big as 75,076 before the elections in the five states of Uttar Pradesh (UP), Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa which recently went to the polls.
A presidential candidate backed by the NDA can easily sail through if the BJP manages support from the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and All India Anna DMK (AIADMK), apart from independents. The two parties have been partners in the past. The BJD, which has 117 MLAs in the Odisha assembly and 21 MPs in Lok Sabha, has a total vote value of 17,433 in the electoral college. The AIADMK with 134 MLA in Tamil Nadu can add another 23,584 to this figure. The NDA’s haul has improved in all the five states. The ruling alliance won 325 seats in UP, 57 in Uttarakhand, 30 in Manipur, 18 in Punjab and 13 in Goa. The value of votes cast by elected legislators gets a weightage on the basis of a formulae: Value of an MLA’s vote is equal to total population of the state or union territory divided by total number of elected members of the legislative assembly multiplied by 1,000.
President Pranab Mukherjee’s term ends in July and the BJP will get the chance to field the candidate of its choice. Mukherjee was UPA government’s candidate in 2012.
Not only the electoral college, the victories in Uttar Pradesh will also help the NDA to improve its tally in the Rajya Sabha which is dominated by the opposition. The Rajya Sabha numbers will change in April next year. The NDA’s strength in the Upper House at the moment is 75. To reach the halfway mark, the BJP and its partners will need 123 seats. There will be 58 vacancies in 2018 and 11 this year. Out of these, UP and Uttarakhand will throw up 10 vacant seats. Rajya Sabha MPs from Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Bihar, Gujarat, Sikkim, Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Odisha and Telangana will be elected next year. Of these states, the BJP holds power in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana and Jharkhand. This will help the party in improving its position in the Upper House.
Improving its strength in the Rajya Sabha will help the BJP in pushing through its legislative agenda. Several key legislations of the NDA government have been stuck after facing a firewall in the Upper House where the opposition has the upper hand. It has often frustrated the pace of governance. The BJP hopes that it will be in a better position in Parliament in 2019. The victories in the assembly elections will also silence critics of the government on major issues like demonetisation. Party sources said this will be an opportunity to push through the Modi government’s reforms agenda.
