BJP can reap benefits of Uttarakhand, UP wins in Rajya Sabha only after a year

NEW DELHI: While the BJP’s assembly election victories in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand have provided a major opening for the party to improve its strength in the opposition-dominated Rajya Sabha, it will still take more than a year to reap the benefits of getting more seats in the Upper House.

Barring an unscheduled by-poll due to the death or resignation of a sitting member, Uttar Pradesh is scheduled to have its biennial election for the Rajya Sabha only in April 2018, when 10 members representing the state are scheduled to retire. Six of them are from the Samajwadi Party, three from the Bahujan Samaj Party and one from the Congress.

Given the record BJP tally of 312 seats in the UP assembly, the party can win at least nine of those seats and can haul in a similar number from the state in November 2020, when another 10 Rajya Sabha seats have to be filled.

Meanwhile, the narrowing race between Congress and BJP for the status of being the single largest party in the Rajya Sabha will steadily see the ruling party overtaking the main Opposition party. The Congress currently has 59 seats against BJP’s 56.

From Uttarakhand, the BJP can win one Rajya Sabha seat in April 2018 when a sitting Congress members retires, and another in November 2020, when a Congress MP retires. The Congress currently has 59 seats in the Rajya Sabha against the BJP’s 56. However, the numerical domination of the larger anti-BJP opposition bloc will continue in the Upper House for a couple of years.

In mid-2017, biennial elections will be held to fill six Rajya Sabha vacancies in West Bengal, which will see the Trinamool Congress winning most of them, leaving one or two seats for the Left and the Congress and none for the BJP. In August, three seats in Gujarat will fall vacant – two BJP and one Congress – and the status quo will likely be maintained.

The party/combination that forms the government in Goa and Manipur will bag one Rajya Sabha seat from both states this year. The Aam Aadmi Party will open its Rajya Sabha account from Delhi early next year. The BJP will have the upper hand in the election to three Rajya Sabha seats from Jharkhand in April 2018. The BJP can win a seat from Chhattisgarh in March 2018 but the RJD-JD (U)-Congress front will win a majority of the four Rajya Sabha seats from Bihar in April 2018. In Punjab, which elected the Congress, the party can improve its Rajya Sabha tally but has to wait till 2022 for the next round of biennial elections.

For the next two years at least, the Modi government will have to continue to pursue negotiations with the opposition as it attempts to smoothen the legislative course in the Rajya Sabha.