New Delhi: It has held power for three terms in Manipur, but winning a fourth one is proving to be tough for the Congress, which is running neck and neck with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the north-eastern state.
While the BJP had won 17 seats, the Congress had bagged 16 as of 3:30 pm. on Saturday. However, it is leading in seven seats as opposed to the BJP’s 5, taking the final expected tally up to 24 (for Congress) and 22 for BJP.
The latter may not be forming a government in the state (though it remains to be seen whether an alliance with parties like Naga People’s Front will work out) but considering that its tally was zero in the last assembly elections in the state, 22 is a huge jump.
That this was going to be an election to watch out for was clear from the very beginning, for several reasons. For starters, a win for Congress would mean that chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh can comfortably lay claim to being one of the longest serving CMs in India with a fourth term.
Then there was the Irom Sharmila factor. The activist who broke her 16-year-old fast only last year may not have been a serious contender but her claim to moral high ground was such that she still represented a formidable challenge.
Her party People’s Resurgence and Justice Alliance (PRJA) fielded three candidates and though none of them really stood a chance, they did manage to make enough noise, literally, given that their election symbol was a whistle.
But the most interesting aspect has been the emergence of the BJP as a key player in the state, albeit on poached support. Senior Congress leaders defected to the party in the months leading up to the elections, including the Congress’s Manipur vice president, N Biren Singh.
Personal ambitions clearly were a reason for the defection as in February of last year, he had led a group of 20 legislators against deputy CM and home minister G Gaihkangam, asking for a cabinet re-shuffle.
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Manipur has been scarred by violence for the better part of two decades now and since November it has been brought to its knees by an economic blockade which was called by the United Naga Council.
The blockade was in response to the government’s decision to bifurcate seven districts, the majority of which fall in hill regions. Then there was the thorny issue of inner line permit which the valley dwellers wanted but the hill tribes were opposed to. In fact Biren Singh in an interview to Indian Express in November had termed the situation in the state “alarming…I can’t just stand aside and watch the state deteriorate.”
But even as the BJP was trying to find its feet, it was obvious to long-time political observers that the party would still fall short of a majority in the state.
“’Congress may not get majority but it will still be the single largest party in the state,” said Pradeep Phanjoubam, author of The Northeast question: Conflict and Frontiers.
According to him, the BJP’s increased presence in Manipur can be accounted by a national wave. “They have been taking over state after state in the north-east, starting with Assam. Manipur is a natural progression.”
The Congress was bogged down by anti-incumbency and corruption charges but according to Phanjoubam, people would still prefer to vote for someone they know and that is why the Congress has maintained its grip.
Manipur voted for a new government on 4 and 8 March saw a voter turn-out of 84% and 86% respectively in the two phases.
Now as the result goes down, literally, to the wire, it remains to be seen, just who the chosen one is.
