If the predictions of several of the exit polls, made public on Thursday, for the five states that had Assembly elections in February-March turn out to be true, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to emerge as the most influential leader of India since Indira Gandhi, who had held sway over the country’s political landscape 40 years back.
Findings of at least four exit polls suggested that Modi’s blitzkrieg of public rallies in Uttar Pradesh (UP) could help the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) either comfortably cross the majority mark of 202 in the 403-seat UP Assembly, or come close to it.
The BJP, along with ally Apna Dal, had bagged 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP in 2014, winning a staggering 337 of the 403 Assembly segments. At least two exit polls — India Today-Axis and Today’s Chanakya — could come close to that tally by winning up to 285 seats. However, two other exit polls predicted a hung Assembly with the BJP as the single-largest party but the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance not far behind and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in third place. As for other states, most exit polls said the BJP was likely to retain power in Goa and wrest power from the Congress in Uttarakhand.
One exit poll, however, predicted a dead heat between the BJP and Congress in Uttarakhand, predicting that both were likely to win 35-seats each in the 70-member Assembly.
In Manipur, one exit poll predicted that the BJP would emerge the single-largest party, while another said the incumbent Congress was most likely to return to power.
The BJP’s only setback is likely to be Punjab, where exit polls predicted a consolation prize for the Congress, with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) likely to emerge as the principal Opposition party. But two exit polls predicted a hung Assembly, with both the AAP and Congress winning nearly the same number of seats and falling short of the majority mark of 59 seats. Four of the five exit polls said that the Shiromani Akali Dal–BJP alliance will struggle to touch double digits in the 117-member Assembly.
If the counting of votes, scheduled for Saturday, vindicates the findings of the exit polls that are predicting a near majority for the BJP in the UP Assembly, it will have ramifications on the Rajya Sabha numbers in 2018 and also on the presidential elections in July. It would also shrink the space for the Opposition, and to some extent achieve BJP chief Amit Shah’s ambition of a ‘Congress-mukt’ India. If the BJP triumphs in UP, the PM can justifiably claim it to be a referendum in favour of his November 8 demonetisation decision. A favourable electoral verdict, say sources, will embolden his government to go after tax evaders and complete the unfinished agenda of demonetisation.
The numbers in UP Assembly are likely to help BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) get its choice of presidential nominee elected to be the next President of India. Currently, the NDA is approximately 66,000 short of the majority mark in the presidential electoral college. On Thursday, the Election Commission said it has initiated the process for the holding of the presidential elections. It announced the filling of two vacancies in the Lok Sabha and of 12 legislative Assembly seats across 10 states. The polling for these bypolls will take place on April 9. The electoral victories would also help the BJP emerge the largest party in the Rajya Sabha in 2018, and reach closer to the majority mark. The lack of numbers in the Rajya Sabha has hobbled the Modi government in its efforts to push through some of its legislative agenda.
Most of all, these electoral victories, particularly in UP, would not only decimate the Opposition, but put Modi and his party firmly on the road to do an encore of 2014 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
A victory in Manipur would signal that the BJP’s success in Assam in 2016 was no fluke and that it is now clearly a pan-India party, with presence not just in the north and south, but also eastern India.
A victory in UP would signify that the PM has succeeded in achieving his objective of displacing Congress as the party of the poor, that his ‘garib kalyan’, or welfare of the poor, agenda has worked and that his party has managed to expand its social base in the Hindi heartland. The exit poll findings are not just bad news for the Congress, which is trying to make a comeback and is the ruling party in Uttarakhand and Manipur, but also the BSP. All exit polls were unanimous in predicting that the BSP would struggle to cross the 100-seats mark. But exit polls have a mixed record on accuracy. Over the past two decades, few exit polls have accurately predicted results in UP. Exit polls are known to have consistently overestimated the BJP and underestimated the BSP in UP.
On January 2 in Lucknow, at his public rally at the end of the 50 days of demonetisation, the PM seemed to be aware of history when he said that his opponents have become “politically irrelevant”. He even echoed Indira Gandhi. She had famously said in her 1971 election campaign, where her party’s slogan was ‘Garibi Hatao’, remove poverty: “Woh kahate hain Indira hatao; hum kahate hain garibi hatao” (my opponents call for Indira’s removal; I want poverty to be removed).
In Lucknow, Modi said: “Woh kahate hain Modi hatao; main kehta hoon kaladhan hatao, bhrashtachar hatao (they say remove Modi; I say end black money, end corruption).”