If the predictions of several of the exit polls, made public on Thursday, for the five states that had assembly elections in February-March turn out to be true, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to emerge as the most influential leader of India since Indira Gandhi, who had held sway over the country’s political landscape 40-years back.
Findings of at least two exit polls suggested that Prime Minister Modi's blitzkrieg of public rallies in Uttar Pradesh could help BJP either reach the majority mark of 202 in the 403-seat Uttar Pradesh assembly, or come close to it. However, two other exit polls predicted a hung assembly with the BJP as the single largest party but the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance not far behind and Bahujan Samaj Party in the third place.
Incidentally, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav had on Tuesday had said that he would be willing to host BSP chief Mayawati for tea. On Thursday, Yadav told BBC that in the eventuality of a hung assembly he was not averse to a tie-up with the BSP. Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav had a pre-poll alliance in 1993, which enabled them to jointly defeat the BJP in the wake of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement, but have been sworn enemies ever since the infamous 'Guest House' incident in 1995.
As for other states, most exit polls said the BJP was likely to retain power in Goa and wrest power from the Congress in Uttarakhand. One exit poll, however, predicted a dead heat between the BJP and Congress in Uttarakhand, predicting that both were likely to win 35-seats each in the 70-member assembly. In Manipur, one exit poll predicted that BJP would emerge the single largest party while another said the incumbent Congress was most likely to return to power.
The BJP’s only setback is likely to be Punjab, where exit polls predicted a consolation prize for the Congress with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) likely to emerge as the principal opposition party. But two exit polls predicted a hung assembly with both AAP and Congress winning nearly the same number of seats, and falling short of the majority mark of 59-seats. Nearly all exit polls said that the Shiromani Akali Dal –BJP alliance will struggle to touch double digit in the 117-member assembly.
If the counting of votes, scheduled for Saturday, vindicates the findings of the exit polls that are predicting a near majority for the BJP in the UP assembly, it will have ramifications on the Rajya Sabha numbers in 2018 and also on the presidential elections in July. It would also shrink the space for the opposition, and to some extent achieve Bharatiya Janata Party chief Amit Shah’s ambition of a ‘Congress-mukt’ India.
If the BJP triumphs in UP, the PM can justifiably claim it to be a referendum in favour of his November 8 demonetisation decision. A favourable electoral verdict, say sources, will embolden his government to go after tax evaders and complete the unfinished agenda of demonetisation.
The numbers in Uttar Pradesh assembly are likely to help BJP-led National Democratic Alliance get its choice of presidential nominee elected to be the next President of India. Currently, the NDA is approximately 66,000 short of the majority mark in the presidential electoral college. On Thursday, the Election Commission said it has initiated the process for the holding of the presidential elections. It announced the filling of two vacancies in the Lok Sabha 12 legislative assembly seats across 10 states. The polling for these by-polls will take place on April 9.
The electoral victories would also help BJP emerge the largest party in the Rajya Sabha in 2018, and reach closer to the majority mark. The lack of numbers in the Rajya Sabha has hobbled the Modi government in its efforts to push through some of its legislative agenda.
Most of all, these electoral victories, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, would not only decimate the opposition, but put Modi and his party firmly on the road to do an encore of 2014 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
A victory in Manipur would signal that the BJP’s success in Assam in 2016 was no fluke and that it is now clearly a pan India party with presence not just in the north and south, but also eastern India.
A victory in UP would signify that the PM has succeeded in achieving his objective of displacing Congress as the party of the poor, that his ‘garib kalyan’, or welfare of the poor, agenda has worked and that his party has managed to expand its social base in Hindi heartland.
The exit polls findings are not just bad news for the Congress, which is trying to make a comeback and is the ruling party in Uttarakhand and Manipur, but also the Bahujan Samaj Party. All exit polls were unanimous in predicting that the BSP would struggle to cross the 100-seats mark.
But exit polls have a mixed record on accuracy. Over the last two decades, few exit polls have accurately predicted results in Uttar Pradesh. Exit polls are known to have consistently overestimated BJP and underestimated Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh.
On January 2 in Lucknow, at his public rally at the end of the 50 days of demonetisation, the PM seemed to be aware of history when he said that his opponents have become “politically irrelevant”. He even echoed Indira Gandhi. She had famously said in her 1971 election campaign, where her party’s slogan was “Garibi Hatao’, remove poverty: “Wah kahate hain Indira hatao, hum kahate hain garibi hatao’’ (my opponents call for Indira’s removal, I want poverty to be removed).
In Lucknow, Modi said: “Wah kahate hain Modi hatao, main kahata hoon kaladhan hatao, bhrashtachar hatao (they say remove Modi, I say end black money, end corruption).”